The odds may be low, but there are vendor lockin scenarios that sink a company fast. Having experienced that once you don't want that sense of powerlessness again.

The part where I agree with the sentiment in this chain is where people try to avoid this by putting in big abstraction layers of custom crap.

It's possible to use Law of Demeter principles to keep the vendor details of a lot of subsystems from leaking across your entire app. But that requires architectural skills that are de-emphasized in the Ship Every Week world we live in.

(I'm not implying causality there, or maybe the causality is in the other direction. These things are hard to learn and harder to teach and if you can't get one thing you try something else.)