The lack of a good “intro to task and small project management” MOOC or book is a serious problem for our industry’s ability to onboard junior engineers. I wish I knew how to write one, but TBH I don’t know any principles myself except one.

Lots of people say “just do it and multiply by 3” without appreciating that The important part of estimating tasks is coming up with the task breakdown and identifying the risks.

The best you can do in most scenarios is to research comparable projects and calibrate against them. "They shipped in six months, therefore we can ship in six months."

Have you ever done this and had it turn out successfully? Because my intuition is screaming at me that this would be disastrous.

For one, it skips the step where you break down the tasks. For another, it seems likely to ignore a bunch of variables in the search for something similar enough.

Both the mentionned idea are natural, but it's ultra sad that we can only live by experiment like craftsmen for previous eras. Not that I mind craftmanship but at least school should write it in bold letters so you're not seeking a mathematical model.