Re:Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
by comex on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @08:33PM
(#19620523)
Sure, but that doesn’t mean 538 can’t include information about the spread, in addition to their top-line number which is just a single probability.
And yes, my discussion of polling error was oversimplified, but I was mainly just trying to explain what I meant about having to treat something as random if it’s theoretically predictable given enough information.
EDIT: Hold on; I don’t think 538 does include error bars for their probabilities. They have error bars for measurables like the vote share, but that’s normal. So I don’t understand what this argument is even about :)
Re:Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
by ikeboy on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @08:47PM
(#19620598)
Someone several comments up suggested Silver should include error bars and should bet based on a spread, I said that was not proper Bayesian methods, then we had this back and forth.
And yes, my discussion of polling error was oversimplified, but I was mainly just trying to explain what I meant about having to treat something as random if it’s theoretically predictable given enough information.
EDIT: Hold on; I don’t think 538 does include error bars for their probabilities. They have error bars for measurables like the vote share, but that’s normal. So I don’t understand what this argument is even about :)