Re:Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
by perl4ever on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @07:26PM
(#19620052)
As was mentioned elsewhere in this thread (and I am aware of from reading 538) during the campaign, Silver updates separately both a probability based on the scenario of "if the election were held tomorrow" and the best prediction of the election on its actual date.
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Re:Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
by dragonwriter on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @07:34PM
(#19620109)
In the 2016 election season, Silver used three models, two forecast models predicting what the election would do (a “polls-only” and a “polls-plus” model incorporating non-poll data), and the “nowcast” of what would happen if the election were held at the moment of the analysis. The polls-only forecast was (at least at the end of the cycle) the headline result.