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A comment on Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math. Parent comment

Re:Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math by dragonwriter on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @05:25PM (#19619087)
> Maybe this was true of past elections, but their 2018 house forecast had a “how this forecast has changed” section that showed their historical predictions throughout election season.

It has not changed. They did this the whole way back when it was an independent blog before the NY Times (later ESPN then ABC News) picked them up.

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Re:Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math by Someone1234 on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @09:06PM (#19620736)
Where are they? Five different posters have claimed this, but zero have been able to link to the historical predictions.
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Re:Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math by dragonwriter on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @09:16PM (#19620800)
> Where are they? Five different posters have claimed this, but zero have been able to link to the historical predictions.

They are literally charted on the page with the current prediction, e.g., for the 2016 Presidential race (which is locked on the last forecast):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ , under “How the forecast has changed”, it charts the forecast (by default, the win probability) for the entire time the race was being forecast.

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