News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by fruscica on Friday May 04, 2007 @06:54PM (#19587)
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias:

In January 2006, Drew Westen and a team from Emory University announced at the annual Society for Personality and Social Psychology conference in Palm Springs, California the results of a study[2] showing the brain activity for confirmation bias. Their results suggest the unconscious and emotion-driven nature of this form of bias.

The study was carried out during the pre-electoral period of the 2004 presidential election on 30 men, half who described themselves as strong Republicans and half as strong Democrats. During a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scan, the subjects were asked to assess contradictory statements by both George W. Bush and John Kerry. The scans showed that the part of the brain associated with reasoning, the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was not involved when assessing the statements. Conversely, the most active regions of the brain were those involved in processing emotions (orbitofrontal cortex), conflict resolution (anterior cingulate cortex) and making judgment about moral accountability (posterior cingulate cortex).[3]

Dr. Westen summarised the work:

"None of the circuits involved in conscious reasoning were particularly engaged. Essentially, it appears as if partisans twirl the cognitive kaleidoscope until they get the conclusions they want, and then they get massively reinforced for it, with the elimination of negative emotional states and activation of positive ones....

Everyone from executives and judges to scientists and politicians may reason to emotionally biased judgments when they have a vested interest in how to interpret 'the facts'."[4]

---end of wikipedia excerpt---

As nearly as I can tell, this kind of bias afflicts most/all of the folks who frequent YC News. To understand why I think this, review my previous submissions and the non-response each received. It seems that (aspiring) entrepreneurs who are pure tech (I'm a hybrid of comp sci & comedy writing) just don't want to believe that, going forward, their companies will probably have to market profitably through branded entertainment to be competitive.

Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by pg on Friday May 04, 2007 @08:02PM (#19605)
This has to be the most elaborate gripe I've ever heard from someone whose stuff got ignored on a social news site. I don't remember any of your other submissions, but if they had as low a signal to noise ratio as this one, I can see why they might not have got many votes.

Basically this post = "Everyone here is so deluded that they ignore me!" and not even in your own words.

Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by fruscica on Friday May 04, 2007 @08:05PM (#19607)
I'm just positing a hypothesis. Why so gratuitously ad hominem? At least gather some data first...

(But thanks for the interesting data point :-)

Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by inklesspen on Friday May 04, 2007 @10:41PM (#19654)
It's rather disingenuous to say "you all suffer from confirmation bias because you ignore my posts" and then claim ad hominem attacks when people point out that your posts are not that interesting. _You_ are the one who started the conversation focusing on you and your posts.
Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by jey on Friday May 04, 2007 @07:41PM (#19599)
As nearly as I can tell, this kind of bias afflicts most/all of the folks who frequent YC News. To understand why I think this, review my previous submissions and the non-response each received. It seems that (aspiring) entrepreneurs who are pure tech (I'm a hybrid of comp sci & comedy writing) just don't want to believe that, going forward, their companies will probably have to market profitably through branded entertainment to be competitive.

I agree with the idea that here in this Web Startup World Echo Chamber, we're all probably suffering from a big helping of confirmation bias... but your comment at the end about this being reflected by your submissions being ignored is a total non-sequitur. How does branded entertainment relate to news.yc? Lack of interest in the videos you recorded doesn't necessarily indicate that the audience here suffers from confirmation bias. Maybe the community just isn't interested in your submissions.

Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by fruscica on Friday May 04, 2007 @07:55PM (#19603)
How does branded entertainment relate to news.yc?

Well, as nearly as I can tell, many of the folks who frequent YC News are interested in understanding how to give rise to a successful startup, and two big pieces of that puzzle are marketing and generating profits...

Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by SwellJoe on Saturday May 05, 2007 @01:43AM (#19693)
And this assumes that your submissions provide valuable information about some key piece of that. It appears YC'ers disagree with your assessment.

Your premise here may very well be valid, but that doesn't mean the voted down posts were good.

Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by byrneseyeview on Sunday May 06, 2007 @02:54PM (#19981)
Indeed. Just imagine how much money Google would have made if they'd hired an MBA, bought some superbowl ads, and refused to launch their product until they knew exactly how to make it cash-flow positive!
Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by nostrademons on Friday May 04, 2007 @07:00PM (#19589)
Probably pretty badly. Like everybody else.

That said, your comments don't languish because they contradict some deeply held notions of the news.YC community. They languish because they're irrelevant and read like spam. Most people here know they have to market profitably, they just don't think anything you've proposed is the best approach to that.

Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by fruscica on Friday May 04, 2007 @07:04PM (#19593)
What have I submitted that is irrelevant to understanding how to maximize profits from branded entertainment?

Be specific.

Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by fruscica on Friday May 04, 2007 @07:19PM (#19596)
Also, you should lose the style of response you used above. Way too ad hominem, especially given that you spent exactly no time acquainting yourself w/ the content linked to by my submissions.
Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by zaidf on Friday May 04, 2007 @07:18PM (#19595)
Actually, I'm not sure you can call this "suffering." Having a healthy dose of confirmation bias can be the difference between trusting your instincts and giving in to naysayers(much of the world).

Opposite extreme of confirmation bias is going by research and the written laws. And we know very well the limits of research.

Obviously confirmation bias is no excuse to ignoring apparent problems and flaws. That is just denial--especially in later stages of a startup.

Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by fruscica on Friday May 04, 2007 @07:39PM (#19598)
My takeaway from the Wikipedia excerpt is that being afflicted w/ confirmation bias equates to being in denial. Healthy denial seems oxymoronic, as denial precludes risk management...
Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by zaidf on Friday May 04, 2007 @07:41PM (#19600)
In that case, I'll say that denial has some role behind almost every big entrepreneur's success or business deal.
Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by fruscica on Friday May 04, 2007 @08:03PM (#19606)
Hmmmm...

As best I can recall, relevant (meta-analyses of) studies of entrepreneurship concluded that successful entrepreneurs are typically very mindful of risk. Amar Bhide's book The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses may be a good source for a survey of the aforesaid scholarship.

Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by zaidf on Friday May 04, 2007 @08:11PM (#19610)
Mindful but not necessarily dictated. In some ways the idea of "risk" itself is a form of denial, no?
Re:How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation... by byrneseyeview on Sunday May 06, 2007 @02:58PM (#19983)
Most startups fail, so anyone involved in a startup has to spend all of their waking time doing something that is probably not going to make them any money. If it's 2 AM and you haven't slept in a few days and the difference between working and not working is almost certainly $0, denial is a competitive advantage.