Re:Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (2013)
by dragonwriter on Friday April 05, 2019 @01:23PM
(#19584873)
> Even if betting markets can accurately forecast whether a hypothetical policy would increase welfare, that would last right up until they actually affect policy.
Or until there was enough money at stake that corrupting those involved in outcome measurement was deemed worthwhile given the probability and consequences of being caught and punished for that.
The more policy is at stake, the greater incentive to try to distort market price; the more money is at stake, the greater the incentive to manipulate the measures the determine settlement.
Plus, once you think you’ve detected someone manipulating settlement, sure, you could report your concerns to law enforcement. OTOH, you would perhaps be better off to not do so, and instead factor their interests into your own market participation.
Or until there was enough money at stake that corrupting those involved in outcome measurement was deemed worthwhile given the probability and consequences of being caught and punished for that.
The more policy is at stake, the greater incentive to try to distort market price; the more money is at stake, the greater the incentive to manipulate the measures the determine settlement.
Plus, once you think you’ve detected someone manipulating settlement, sure, you could report your concerns to law enforcement. OTOH, you would perhaps be better off to not do so, and instead factor their interests into your own market participation.