Regardless of his purported numbers he's still banking on massive economic growth happening at the same time as a massive tax increase. This is next-level voodoo economics.
We (at least, public direct aid programs; food banks etc., may pick up some of the slack) do now if people squander welfare, why would UBI change that?
Well, exactly the opposite, but sure.
> Yang's assumption that we'll be able to scrap welfare program if we give people UBI is a fantasy. Because UBI won't change the fact that many people are still going to need welfare, UBI or not.
No, your idea that we will be compelled to double cover against because some people might not use their first-line benefits ideally is fantasy, because people not doing that happens now and we are fine not double covering.
Replacing welfare with UBI isn't going to happen, we will end up paying for both.
When my family was on food stamps, if we mismanaged our money and food stamps one month (spent them too inefficiently, accidentally let some food spoil, or such), then, yes, society would absolutely have let us starve (though not in the streets, as we did own our house and were in a rural area). We might have been able to get some further help from family or friends, but not from any form of welfare.
Yes, just as much as we do now if they resell (e.g., for drugs) or squander their food stamps. Or, for perhaps a more perfect parallel, the same as the existing system does for anyone who had the income or assets to fail to qualify for means-tested benefits in the first place but fails to use them to meet their basic needs.
> Again, you're not seeing the fact that welfare often comes in the form of services, which the welfare receipts can't waste.
The things that directly stop people from starving in the streets are cash aid and aid that purchases food, neither of which are proof against recipient waste.
There are other forms of means-tested aid (largely, by dollar value, Medicaid) which are harder to misdirect, but UBI plus a default (with premium) public health insurance plan that you can opt-out of the purchasing a qualified private plan (a no B.S. individual mandate rather than a pay-a-small-fine one) handles that.
> I guess someone could try to seell soup they get at a soup kitchen
Soup kitchens aren't means tested public welfare, they are generally private charity, and are usually means-tested only in that people with any other options don't go.
(5-6bn in welfare cuts) +
(8bn in vat) +
(5-6bn in magic economic growth) +
(1-2bn in cutting stuff he doesn't really elaborate on) =
(1.8-2.1trn).
So even if all his fantastic predictions come true we're still short of the 3.1 trillion to give 1k UBI checks to all ~260m adult Americans.