I've heard that theory before, that individuals gain no political power by owning guns, and I'm not convinced. Tyrants are never apathetic about who has weapons and who doesn't.

Also, the details matter a lot. What percentage of civilians? Absolute numbers? Pistols or rifles? How are loyalty lines drawn geographically?

There are also all kinds of other political games the people in power play other than direct military confrontation. Leaving you unprotected (e.g. strict gun control and long police response times) amongst criminals is one way to make your rights useless.