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A comment on U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2007. Parent comment

Re:U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2007 by hire_charts on Friday March 22, 2019 @05:36PM (#19467210)
Can't you essentially fabricate this statistic by controlling for the amount of time that counts as "before", assuming the inverted curves happen more often than recessions?
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Re:U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2007 by mannykannot on Friday March 22, 2019 @08:32PM (#19468223)
I am guessing that "before" means that the inversion persisted until the economy was technically in recession.
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Re:U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2007 by tfehring on Saturday March 23, 2019 @12:23AM (#19469058)
Not quite - see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M for reference. The grey areas are recessions, and values below 0 are inversions.

To address the GP’s point, the relationship could be fabricated, but the data don’t indicate that that’s happening.

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