That's a bold statement, and it goes against my anecdotal experience. Do you have evidence for this?

I think this is true of pretty much any country. Most of the talent is there, but they just don't have an opportunity to compete against big companies like Google.

Just look at China; they blocked all US online monopolies and as a result they've quickly come up with their own alternative versions of every major service and the Chinese economy is still going strong. As unethical as it may seem for the government to control such things, there is no doubt that they're better off like this (strictly economically speaking).

China has a population (and thus potential audience) more than 20 times bigger than France; I think it's a weak argument to claim the two economies would do similarly without further evidence. Similarly, I have trouble believing the talent is there, having talked to entrepreneurs in France and comparing my experiences there and in Silicon Valley.

We might then think to look at companies like VK in Russia, but VK is order of magnitudes away from the success of Tencent.

It probably is a chicken-and-egg problem. Speaking from my own experience, the comparatively very low software engineer salaries in France drove me to freelance (mostly for foreign clients), and later emigration.

There is simply very low demand for high-skill software developers. Compare the job ads in Paris vs. NYC for instance: the Paris tech ecosystem is overwhelmingly hiring for dirt cheap roles on outdated technologies.

I think it's a mix of culture, and the lower upside French startups can aspire to due to market size and heavy tax/bureaucracy burden.