Re:DeepMind and Google: the battle to control artificial int...
by roenxi on Thursday March 14, 2019 @08:25PM
(#19395276)
Aren't FLOPS/dollar still increasing exponentially? "Nowhere near" means something different when you are dealing with exponentials.
If that growth doesn't cap out before AGI, then at some point we'll harness more computational power than a human brain, in a more controllable way. And around that point AGI probably goes from impossible to possible to easy in a stretch of about 6 years.
edit turns out 6 years was about the timespan for computer Go to span "plays like a competent amateur" to "superhuman". There was barely anything worth reporting before 2010 [0].
If that growth doesn't cap out before AGI, then at some point we'll harness more computational power than a human brain, in a more controllable way. And around that point AGI probably goes from impossible to possible to easy in a stretch of about 6 years.
edit turns out 6 years was about the timespan for computer Go to span "plays like a competent amateur" to "superhuman". There was barely anything worth reporting before 2010 [0].
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_Go#21st_century