Don't misunderstand me: I am responding only to the parent comment that the new tax law will massively change things for a 500k couple due to deductions. For that specific range for a married couple it won't (because they likely already were paying higher taxes due to AMT).
To your second point, that's also highly individual. My household income is ~800k. That makes my California effective tax rate 8.9%. I personally would have a hard time finding jobs for both my husband and myself in a new state taking only an 8.9% pay cut.
The phenomenon discussed in the article of continuing net inflow of high earners to California and out flow of middle and lower earners is not new: https://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/article13647809...
I am not saying this is good! But the simplistic "everyone is fleeing high CA taxes" narrative is not supported by the data. What is happening is not good for California but also more complicated than that.
I would say the burden of high housing costs absolutely dwarfs the effect of taxes for most people.
It hits people with lower-but-still middle-class to upper-middle-class, who weren't hitting the AMT before but still would have state/local taxes above the SALT cap.
The media wants it to effect the middle class, so they leave that part out.
I realize that the lower rates help out high earners and can mitigate the effect of the SALT cap. But all high earners across the country get the benefit of low rates, whereas only the ones in high tax states get hit with the cap. So when weighing the choice between being a relatively high earners in a low tax state or a super high earners in a high tax state, the balance shifts toward the low tax state.