This is cool stuff. Have you checked out mtgtop8.com? Some code for it from back in Kaladesh: https://github.com/ivodopyanov/MTGML. I asked the dev a couple of years ago and he said he had a newer version, but it wasn't on github.

Thinking about your jellybean guessing (wisdom of the crowds) analogy, I don't want an unweighted average of a Ben Stark and a random player. Years ago mtgo elo ratings were public - seems like that could be useful. With something like the deckmaster twitch extension you could (theoretically) grab drafts from stream replays of great players. Especially with the MPL players required to stream there must be some great data on video.