Ok let's run this scenario (please check my math here, I'm not positive I'm doing the probability right). Let's assume we're talking about a man, bc men are more likely to be affected. Your lifetime risk of developing bowel cancer is 7% for males [1]. Bowel cancer risk is 17-30% higher if you eat a quarter pound of red meat per day [2]. But let's go ahead and assume someone does eat that much meat and use 30%. If you get bowel cancer, you have a 25% chance of dying [3]. That means...

lifetime_risk_no_meat = 0.07

lifetime_risk_yes_meat = 0.07 + (0.07*.3)

risk_of_death_given_cancer = 0.25

(lifetime_risk_yes_meat - lifetime_risk_no_meat) /risk_of_death_given_cancer ==> 0.084

So an 0.084% increase in risk of death if we use the most risky scenario available.

[1]: Lifetime risk of bowel cancer https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-...

[2]: https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-...

[3]: Persons-> Crude rate -> UK https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-...

I believe that your math is wrong because some of your numbers are percents and some are not, and because you divided instead of multiplying. If you are interested in the chance of death, you take the chance of cancer and multiply it by the chance of death given cancer.

lifetime_risk_no_meat = 7% lifetime_risk_yes_meat = 7% + (7%30%) = 9.1% risk_of_death_given_cancer = 25% (lifetime_risk_yes_meat - lifetime_risk_no_meat) risk_of_death_given_cancer = 2.1%*25% = 0.00525 = 0.525%

So by this math, eating a quarter pound of red meat a day causes men in this worse case scenario to die 0.525% more often, which is a sixteen times higher rate than your calculated value.

Of course, that’s not how to actually do the relevant calculations, since (assuming no significant technology changes), everyone will eventually die. Thus you instead need to do calculations based on life expectancy, or better yet on QALY (quality adjusted life years), which adjusts for the quality of life that people live in addition to their age.

>Genuinely curious, where did you see the "0.074% decrease in death risk?"

I was generously assuming that if I follow their advice, I eliminate bowel cancer risk entirely. Since only .074% of the population has it (74 per 100k), that’s the max change in risk of death.

But you’re right, I really only decreased my risk by 13% of that .074% by eliminating red meat. Still don’t see the enormous upside.

That makes sense, I should have caught that the harm reduction was not in total mortality but just of the bowel cancer subset.

But they only appeal to the bowel cancer risk and don't list any other death risks that are associated with red meat, so I'm assuming that's the only (or the far-dominant) one.