Advances in materials are probably going to reduce the need for skilled workers. You used to have a wide range of machinist jobs in the US. Now with CNC everywhere everyone is either a "production engineer" (or some title like that) that programs everything or a parts loader/button pusher that makes a few bucks more than minimum.

Obviously this kind of stuff takes many years but someone getting into a skilled trades career today would do well to keep on top of industry developments because the people that do will be the programmers and the people that don't will be replaced by button pushers.

Plumbers I can see from the range and messiness of the tasks as very non-standardized beyond pipe thicknesses, and the diagnostics and HVACs as a cousin likely would have some similar issues but why would welders be a very hard to automate task?

Not dismissing it I just wonder what the "hard for machines" aspect is that I'm missing.

I know there are plenty of robotic welders out there and that progress implies they'll either expand more into "humans can't do that" territory and possibly become cheaper over time.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but sounds like you are thinking of welding in a factory?

I know a lot of welding is repairing damaged equipment. Especially older or already Jerry-rigged devices. I'd imagine it would be extremely difficult and expensive to develop an AI and a machine that would be adaptable enough to do these sort of projects.

Would construction welders be any less 'non-standardized' than Plumbing or HVAC? I would think welders have to problem solve far more than them for their tasks..

Ah that explains it - a maintenance vs construction thing - notice how repair has become the expensive option compared to creating new? Manufacturing has a far more constrained process which allows for readily automatable braindead repetition because it gets results. If construction now isn't readily automatable surprisingly doesn't matter too much. Building new things can be reengineered to a "friendlier" option like say screws and nails instead of joins but maintenance needs to take what they have and their moving parts.

Building everything to a schematic is easier to automate but I believe that already isn't the bulk of labor demand.

Theoretically a smart system with diagnostics could be more readily automated but those would be more expensive and probably be new constructions and come with their own host of technical and logistical issues. Sure it would be nice to have clogs and leaks mapped and remedied but it would take a while to become universal even if they were rolled out tommorow and worked perfectly.

Will cars ever be automated? Who knows, but there’s a reason Uber drivers make less than cabbies did 10 years ago. Are you willing to bet the next 40 years of your working life on something not being automated?

Yes, cars are on there way to be automated. Google, Apple, Tesla and other big tech companies are all pouring millions of dollars into research in order to have cars drive themselves.

For some jobs, automation will be a concern for those workers. I don't think its a number one concern for a lot of people but all jobs lie on a spectrum of how possible/soon they can be done by a machine. That pressure is only going to grow in the next 40 years.

I know the article doesn't touch on automation but college-educated jobs are some of the most likely to become automated by machines in the near future. Young people that see this is going to happen will be more likely to believe trade apprenticeships are a better route to go than college.

>college-educated jobs are some of the most likely to be automated by machines in the near future

The college educated are most prepared to shift their career to adjust. A broad-based education where students develop emotional intelligence, learning agility (the ability to learn new tasks), and leadership skills is more likely to carry them through massive disruptions in industries.

And if it doesn’t - they can always go learn a trade. Getting into and completing a four year degree after entering the workforce, having children, buying a house, is much more difficult.

>where students develop emotional intelligence, learning agility (the ability to learn new tasks), and leadership skills

Based on my experiences, this makes me laugh... I definitely feel that most colleges fail at this or at least achieve magnitudes lower than what we should want them to do for our students. And I don't see how skilled laboured positions don't or can't teach these skills as well.

The line of work is so broad for an electrician, if there are massive disruptions in the industry, the ones who are able to/have a desire to adapt will adapt. I don't believe just simply because you have a degree you will fair better from changes than someone who has same years of experience in skilled labour.

I agree with you that we live in a social system in America that makes it very difficult to go back to school if you are pretty set in life. I think similar problems also applies to getting a masters degree later in life as well.

-Thank you for the discussion.