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Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by jandrese on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @02:31PM (#19266200)
This is not something I'm worried about. Unless FTL travel is real, the amount of resources necessary to make the trip to kill off/enslave humans makes the entire effort unprofitable. Basically, if you have the ability to travel between star systems, you already have the technology to exist effectively forever in a self contained environment. You can mine asteroids/planets forever in your own solar system for effectively unlimited materials.

Its like you are thirsty so you build an intercontinental jet plane from scratch using parts from around your house to fly to Japan to steal a single Coke from a 7-11.

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by pmoriarty on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @02:52PM (#19266375)
Even mere humans, who've only reaped the fruits of serious scientific advancement for a few hundred years have already come up with a way to get to Alpha Centauri within 44 years.[1]

All such spacecraft would have to do to cause massive devastation is aim at Earth and not stop, though it's likely that more advanced civilizations could come up with more effective means of destruction.

Alien civilizations could have advanced scientifically for thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions of years. It is unlikely that we can accurately put limits on their capabilities.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Orion_%28nuclear_propu...

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by jandrese on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @02:57PM (#19266410)
Project Orion is a cocktail napkin estimate. The actual problem is much much harder.

But as you point out, anything that can travel between the stars can trivially wipe out all life on Earth without warning. They also know we exist already thanks to the changes in the chemical composition of our atmosphere. If they want to kill us then we're dead.

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by rsync on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @02:59PM (#19266421)
"Its like you are thirsty so you build an intercontinental jet plane from scratch using parts from around your house to fly to Japan to steal a single Coke from a 7-11."

The flaw in this analogy is that the you with these capabilities has different, and possibly incomprehensible desires, compared to the you who wants a Coke.

The natives of Central America and Mexico were not aware of how excited those Spaniards would be about Gold and Silver.

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by CharlesColeman on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @02:36PM (#19266229)
That's assuming aliens prioritize profit. Perhaps they're technologically advanced and have everything they need, but have deeply internalized the logic of using preemptive strikes to protect themselves from potential future threats.

Such a strike might not even be that expensive or need FTL technology: just send out a few one-way nuclear-armed suicide drones at 0.12 c [1], via a path that obscures their origin (e.g. via a gravitational slingshot or three).

[1] Perhaps with a design like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Daedalus, https://www.damninteresting.com/the-daedalus-starship/, which is probably even within our technical capabilities. We also have weapon designs that could render the a planet uninhabitable (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salted_bomb).

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by kmm on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @02:54PM (#19266391)
Or send a chunk of metal at near light speed. Things in space move very predictably for thousands of years, and as the projectile only barely trails the signal of its departure, it would come as a total surprise even for very advanced civilizations.

Let's say an advanced civilization around Sirius wants to take us out. A chunk of metal (or anything really) of about 1000 metric tonnes would be completely invisible until it were very close. Travelling at 99.99% of the speed of light, it would impact with the energy of 13 times the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs. The light of the projectile being "fired" would reach us in 10 years, and the projectile itself would arrive just 8 hours later. There is no foreseeable way to defend ourselves against that.

An overly cautious civilization with that kind of technology might just decide to start sterilizing all the planets in its surroundings without having to leave their solar system, just in case.

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by jandrese on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @03:06PM (#19266471)
This is kind of like worrying that God might just decide to kill everyone some day. There's nothing you can do about it, so it's best to just forget about it and hope that by the time a civilization is advanced enough to build such technology they also have advanced ethics enough to not use it.

This used to be a common SciFi staple, that a civilization advanced enough to travel the stars must have solved their social issues first or they would have destroyed themselves with their own technology. Basically as the cost of ending all life on the planet drops you need to advance your ethics fast enough to prevent it from happening. Eventually everybody is carrying around pocket antimatter batteries and either everybody is well adjusted or everybody is dead.

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by CharlesColeman on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @03:09PM (#19266488)
The problem with that is that targeting may be much more difficult. A passive weapon could be thrown off target over long distances due to gravitational perturbations or survey inaccuracies, and would likely have been mistargeted in the first place due to civilizational changes at the target (kinda like the problem with aiming flak, your target can move unpredictably between when you fire your gun and when your shell arrives, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRJC2mkrZks).

An active weapon could be targeted at a solar system too far away for an accurate preparatory survey, then identify and target rocky planets and large artificial structures once it arrives. It could also perform course-corrections in transit, and remain substantially dormant for much of the trip for stealth and surprise.

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by kerbalspacepro on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @02:43PM (#19266288)
This is the wrong way to look at it. You're not thirsty for resources. You're protective of them. Imagine if you were aware of giant, angry Americans who were flying to Japan to steal all of your coke and convert all your land and resources into coke manufacturing plants.

Do you let the plane in? Do you stop it from traveling at all? Do you glass the surface of America with nuclear weapons? How do you know they won't do it to you?

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by jandrese on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @03:00PM (#19266429)
But that makes no sense. You're spending resources protecting against a scenario that is effectively impossible. The term for that is paranoia.

Plus, it doesn't even make sense to try to "protect" yourself because their first move if they even thought like this would be to nuke everything flat with no warning. There's no defense against it. You can't hide either, the signals are already out there, they know where you are.

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by CharlesColeman on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @04:23PM (#19267076)
> But that makes no sense. You're spending resources protecting against a scenario that is effectively impossible. The term for that is paranoia.

It makes no sense to insist that aliens would think as you think they should. That doesn't even make sense for humans in most cases.

> You can't hide either, the signals are already out there, they know where you are.

That's arguably not true.

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by jandrese on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @04:41PM (#19267216)
Even if they don't think the same way we do they are (probably) bound by the same laws of physics. Obviously this argument doesn't work if they have developed warp drives or infinite energy sources and reactionless engines, but if they're bound by the rocket equation as we are then there are truths that can't be avoided.

We are on the cusp of being able to detect the biological markers of life on distant worlds by spectroscopy. An alien civilization that can traverse the enormous gulf between solar systems can very easily build widely spaced telescopes that can monitor all nearby solar systems for changes to atmospheric composition. Anybody who is paranoid enough to need to kill any life around them would obviously build such an array. There is no hiding from them, the technology is much too simple compared to what you need to travel between solar systems.

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by CharlesColeman on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @05:22PM (#19267481)
> An alien civilization that can traverse the enormous gulf between solar systems can very easily build widely spaced telescopes that can monitor all nearby solar systems for changes to atmospheric composition.

Maybe they can't themselves, but don't like the idea that someone else eventually may be able to.

I think you're overconfident of the safety of actively advertising our presence to the universe because you're making a lot of assumptions and only considering a small number of possibilities. The problem is that there are so many unknowns and so many shades between different possibilities that no one can really be confident about anything, except that the risk could be anywhere between zero and the maximum.

Re:In search of ET: Fear of what’s out there causes split am... by mc32 on Wednesday February 27, 2019 @02:36PM (#19266234)
But you’re thinking of it as intentional and directed attack. It can simply be collateral damage. “Oh, what’s there, let’s send a one way selfdestroying probe (don’t take this literally).

But you can imagine a situation where like we’re looking for life on Mars and in doing so inadvertently destroy unknown life.