America’s Professional Elite: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable

Re:America’s Professional Elite: Wealthy, Successful and Mis... by CompelTechnic on Thursday February 21, 2019 @03:52PM (#19220472)

check firecalc.com for historical likelihood of portfolio success, given a starting nest egg and an annual withdrawal rate. The 4% withdrawal rate mentioned above is very likely to succeed for an indefinite period, and 3% is essentially impossible. This is all assuming 85% US equities and 15% bonds, and that the future looks vaguely like the past 150 years.

Despite all the skepticism above, the 4% claims are true. Not 100% chance of indefinite success, but close enough to be actionable. You can also google the "trinity study" for more info.

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Re:America’s Professional Elite: Wealthy, Successful and Mis... by forrestthewoods on Thursday February 21, 2019 @04:15PM (#19220636)

$100,000 per year for 50 years with a $2,500,000 base has a 79.67% success rate.

So pretty likely. But not guaranteed. And for sure not indefinite. Not if you pull the same 4% during down years.

My dream is 5,000,000 and a paid off house. I can live off 3% of that for sure.

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Re:America’s Professional Elite: Wealthy, Successful and Mis... by zaccus on Thursday February 21, 2019 @04:43PM (#19220825)

85% in equities during retirement is a bad idea.

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Re:America’s Professional Elite: Wealthy, Successful and Mis... by CompelTechnic on Thursday February 21, 2019 @05:54PM (#19221379)

The longer the duration, the more it is a good idea to be heavy in equities. This can be teased out of the data on firecalc.

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Re:America’s Professional Elite: Wealthy, Successful and Mis... by zaccus on Friday February 22, 2019 @10:59AM (#19226367)

If you're buying equities and leaving them alone for decades, sure. But if you're retired and depending on your investments for an income, being 85% in equities is insane. One prolonged bear market could wipe you out.

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