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Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by josteink on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @11:49AM (#19209391)
I know I’m not the average movie-goer, but I strongly prefer to see movies at either end of the spectrum: really bad or really good. Those are usually experiences I can fully immerse into and enjoy.

Anything in between (I.e. mediocre) does nothing for me, no matter how well produced or marketed it is or how many hundred millions it cost to make. It’s just gonna be a dud.

Most movies made to please the most people end up here: high budget, great looking, but mediocre, predictable and utterly boring.

To me, using ML to optimize movie audience targets sounds like something which will make a bad situation even worse.

I guess cinema as an art form is truly dead.

Edit: This news seems to confirm a claim made by screenwriter Max Landis[1] in a RLM podcast: Hollywood used to have a recipe for making “successful” (i.e. profitable) movies, but these days none of the recipes work anymore and they are desperate, feeling blinded, and as a result being even more risk-averse in their productions.

This definitely sounds like a desperate move.

[1] https://youtu.be/DR-Dry8Qb4A

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by jdietrich on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @01:08PM (#19210266)
Most movie-goers are primarily goers and only secondarily viewers. They decide to go to the movies, then they decide what they want to watch. Major blockbusters change the equation and draw in non-habitual consumers (hence their importance to Hollywood), but most movie productions aspire to little more than an appealing trailer, a bit of star power and sufficient entertainment value to avoid alienating their core customers. Retaining those customers is much easier than persuading someone like you to make a special trip to the theater for a critically acclaimed movie.

The rise of Netflix and the decline of Blockbuster has decimated the secondary market for movies, further pushing the industry towards conservatism. It's much harder to convince people to pay to see a quirky indie picture or a sleeper hit at home, so movies that don't do well in the opening weekend are pretty much a dead loss. As with Spotify and the music industry, $12/mo subscriptions can't make up for the loss of $9 cinema tickets, $4 rentals and $15 DVD sales.

Cinema isn't in a healthy place right now, much to the benefit of television - the economics for broadcast and streaming TV are much more favourable and there's an influx of talent.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by eropple on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @07:53PM (#19213562)
> Most movie-goers are primarily goers and only secondarily viewers. They decide to go to the movies, then they decide what they want to watch.

Any cites for this? I am very curious to read more about this.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by 0xADEADBEE on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @08:18PM (#19213692)
Me too - it's a really insightful statement. I'd never thought about it before, but in social settings, the actual film watched is frequently an afterthought; it is secondary to the plan of 'going to the cinema'. Plans changing because someone is late is another factor. I really enjoy when this website makes me think of something obvious I'd never considered!
Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by eropple on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @08:33PM (#19213787)
I was thinking about it from the other way around: because I'm not sure I know anybody who would go to the theater without really wanting to see the film being shown.
Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by derefr on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @11:36PM (#19214567)
I don’t think that’s exactly what is being talked about; rather, people say “let’s go see a movie”, and then look at the movies app to see what’s in theatres lately. Of course they won’t end up going if there’s nothing worth seeing—but their criteria for “something worth seeing” is a much lower bar than it would be if they didn’t already want to “go see a movie.”

When a new movie comes out, I say either “that looks like it would be a good movie to watch in theatre”, or (far more often) “I think I’ll wait for that to come out on iTunes/Netflix/etc.” When I’m making that decision, the bar is high. But that’s because watching-at-home really is good enough for the vast majority of movies—it doesn’t remove anything from the experience.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by eropple on Thursday February 21, 2019 @06:07PM (#19221511)
I understood what was being said. I am questioning the point of it. Everybody I know who I've ever talked about going to a film with (and my girlfriend really likes going to the movies so it comes up with her and her friend group a lot) always always always has a movie in mind when they come up with it. The most recent example for them (I didn't go) was the new Spider-Verse movie. They weren't going to see "a movie", they were going to see "that movie", and it was from that movie's release that the impetus originated.

I'd like to see evidence of assertions to the contrary, because to me they don't jibe with reality.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by derefr on Friday February 22, 2019 @11:21AM (#19226544)
Dates. The time when people go to the movies to “go to the movies” is when they’re on a date. (Not just at first, but also later in the context of a steady relationship where they want to see a movie together “because we haven’t seen a movie together in a while.”)

For me, seeing a movie in a theatre vs. watching at home is a bit like going to a restaurant vs. eating at home. I used to “go to restaurants” to try specific things I’d heard about, when I was single. Now, though, I mostly only go to a restaurant to go to a restaurant, because that’s a nice thing I can do with my wife. With restaurants, this is the difference between choosing by word-of-mouth (“they have great X!”) vs. choosing by reviews (“this restaurant seems like they’d have something we’d enjoy, let’s go and find out.”) Movie theatres don’t really have the same element of diversity (unless you’re going to independent cinemas), so it’s more just a choice of whether to go to “the movies” at all.

On the other hand, everything I said about restaurants applies exactly to the other kind of theatre. There’s a Shakespeare troupe here (Vancouver) that, each year, puts on three of the bard’s plays (several showings apiece.) You can certainly want to “see The Tempest”, and therefore go watch them perform it; but what I hear much more often is people wanting to “go to Bard on the Beach” (the troupe), and so then they look at what they’re putting on this year to see if it’s anything they could stand to watch. In this context, the theatre troupe is exactly like a restaurant: they want to go to it, as long as it has something they’d be okay trying.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by dmix on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @10:37PM (#19214319)
Agreed I don’t know people who plan to go to the theater as a general destination rather than to see a particular movie. But I’m not an avid cinema visitor.

I think you’d have to be comfortable seeing big budget mediocre films if that’s one of your hobbies. There's a ton of bad movies out at any one time. Or rather a ton of mediocre (at best) ones.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by jaaames on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @11:52PM (#19214638)
This could be a HN demographic thing. The comment definitely piqued my curiosity, too.

Interested in others thoughts. I think the sibling commenter may have got it right with the fact people make a conscious decision to go see a movie beforehand as an outing, rather than turn up at the cinema and see what's on.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by yesenadam on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @05:15PM (#19212594)
>I guess cinema as an art form is truly dead.

You say this because of something 20th C Fox is doing?!

May I suggest not watching any movies from the US for a year or 2, at least. There's a whole world out there. e.g. France, Spain, Argentina, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, Korea, Brazil, Iran, India, Denmark, Norway, Mexico...

(A page on my website listing outstanding movies/series I've seen recently from each of those countries and others, I don't know a better place to point you to jump straight in: http://www.adamponting.com/movies/ )

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by m3at on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @06:58PM (#19213305)
It's... An amazing list, thanks for sharing.

Can I ask two things:

- Where do you get your movies?

- Do you watch a new one daily to have seen so many?

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by yesenadam on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @11:35PM (#19214564)
So glad someone got something from it!

Hehe yeah, does look like a lot. But 2012-now is..~2800 days, probably there's less than 1000 movies/episodes on there, I haven't counted. Recently watching a lot of series...I like the longer form. I moved into a house in 2012 where they introduced me to torrents - before then I'd hardly seen any great movies, so that was really amazing watching all the great movies and directors I'd always heard of but never checked out. (Had only downloaded books and music before that I guess!) Used to often watch 2 or 3 movies on weekend days. Lately a couple of episodes of a series (or more if bingeing) each night, or a movie. I did put a lot of hours into researching, reading reviews, finding good things to watch, so that we didn't see many that weren't good.

Finding obscure movies online is sometimes tricky (i.e. can take hours), also tracking down good subtitles can be hard, and often have to resync/shift them and/or fix them up. Being able to adjust audio and subtitles while watching with VLC is a must. I get them from:

1. torrents. Usually only works for popular/recent/famous stuff. Sno's torrents with hardcoded English subs are great, have watched a lot of those - mostly series, some movies.

2. movie and/or series sites like primewire, the now-defunct alluc, (which was amazing, finding obscure tv series episodes is much harder now), zocine.com, megashare.bz, www1.swatchseries.to that have links to online files. These come and go over the years. Adding "watch online" to google searches finds sites that the links to movie files can extracted from, either manually from the HTML or using TubeOffline-type downloader sites.

3. video sites. Google the movie/series name - often movies/episodes are on youtube/vimeo/dailymotion, especially when I forget to look for them there! Archive.org has a lot of stuff. (e.g. recently watched White Zombie (1932), the first zombie movie, and The Best Years of our Lives from there)

Not uncommonly an obscure movie will seemingly only be online in one hard-to-find place. (e.g. The only place I could find one classic Australian movie was on someone's page on vk, russian facebook!) I have a startpage with searches each of those sites one click away, so I only have to type the name (& mostly year) once. Whenever I get something from a site I add the site to my start page to easily search it in future. Also my computer is a Mac from 2005 which doesn't make it any easier! Good luck.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by m3at on Thursday February 21, 2019 @07:30PM (#19222017)
Thanks for the detailed answer!

I'll dive into your list over the weekend, and if I find some missing movies I enjoyed, I'll send you an email with a few suggestions for you to watch :)

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by yesenadam on Sunday February 24, 2019 @02:25AM (#19237555)
Ah thanks!, just saw this now.. Also I have a link on that page to IMDb lists I've found useful, they're a great place to find new ones. Or on the IMDb page of a movie you love, look at the lists with that movie in it.. Also, I didn't mention it, but the quality test is to read a couple of pages of user reviews on IMDb. Usually get a good idea whether I'll love it from that. (And for a movie to have 50% 1 star and 50% 9 star reviews is a lot better sign than all 7 stars.)
Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by nicoburns on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @01:02PM (#19210198)
> I guess cinema as an art form is truly dead.

I think cinema as an artform is thriving, just outside of the mainstream Hollywood, etc studios.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by mipmap04 on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @01:06PM (#19210231)
I agree. Fox is a factory that happens to make movies. A corollary here would be to say that "fashion as an art form is truly dead" because Wal-Mart sells mass produced graphic tees for children.
Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by Pfhreak on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @12:47PM (#19210003)
I have your same criteria. I justify it this way, "We live in an era where the amount of 'pretty good' media being produced outstrips my ability to consume it -- even if I were to dramatically increase my viewing/reading/playing time. Therefore, I try to select only the media that's truly exceptional. Exceptionally good or exceptionally bad."
Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by Stunting on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @01:54PM (#19210809)
You might be falling for the branding friend!

Studios have had a major vested interest in proclaiming their product is “Glamorous,” and “Unachievable in lessee glory.” Which in turn justifies the high budgets and higher ticket fares.

But they are a pipeline, that pump 10-300 million dollars into a project that they won’t see a return on for 3 years at the shortest; starting from the time you pay a scriptwriter following through the Opening weekend.

It’s in their best interest to tell people it is Once in a lifetime experience and then put out something that is going to me market accepted.

On the occasional times, it is TRULY once in a life time (Mad Max: Fury Road for me), it hits us in the soul, and draws us back in.

Worth it, to me.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by tomc1985 on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @10:15PM (#19214212)
Once people realize the stupidity of hoarding and analyzing all the data that we do, I think they'll back off a bit. Too often these processes yield suboptimal results. We're in a dark age now because data science is currently quite sexy, and intuition decidedly not
Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by dmix on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @10:41PM (#19214337)
Still, we’ve got to go through the medieval era to get to the enlightenment and modern era.

Hopefully these big companies wasting millions on this mostly mediocre returns will find some gold for the future. Eventually it will be very useful in a more general sense, but it’s going to take time to get there.

All we can hope for now are mainly niche wins for an ever expanding set of problems. Who knows if big budget films will be one. I’m not yet convinced by this article but at least they are trying and have the R&D budgets to fail a few times.medieval

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by tombert on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @01:59PM (#19210846)
I cannot remember who said this, but I mostly agree with the sentiment of "there are no good or bad movies, only boring or interesting movies". I watch a ton of low-budget crap-films, because I find them funny, and I watch a lot of movies that are really interesting (either directly or intellectually). A movie that is boring is the worst kind of movie to me.

A boring movie is something that I genuinely felt wasted my time. I got nothing out of it, and I couldn't even get a lot of enjoyment out of making fun of it. The perfect example of a movie in this category is the 2009 movie "9" (sorry if that's your favorite movie).

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by taneq on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @06:58PM (#19213306)
> "there are no good or bad movies, only boring or interesting movies"

I appreciate the sentiment but in this case, wouldn't that make boring movies bad and interesting movies good? (Assuming, of course, you don't want to be bored...)

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by dragonsngoblins on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @08:48PM (#19213852)
Not really. Jurassic Park is a good movie, the framing, editing, script, fx work, performances, music all come together really well.

Birdemic is a bad movie, in that none of the individual components are good and they don't complement each other well at all.

I'd argue that both are interesting

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by taneq on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @11:57PM (#19214662)
So there are good and bad movies, and orthogonally, boring and interesting movies. :)
Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by tombert on Thursday February 21, 2019 @11:05AM (#19217739)
Yeah, maybe I should clarify; there are "good" and "bad" movies from a theoretical level. My enjoyment largely rests on how interesting I find them. Objectively terrible movies like "The Happening" or "The Room" or "Samurai Cop" or "Troll 2" or "Angry Red Planet" are "bad" because whomever made them seems to have no understanding of film-theory, or what it would take to make a "good" movie, but I find them endlessly entertaining...like watching a trainwreck

The irony of it is that if they had tried to make those moves "bad" on purpose, they wouldn't be interesting at all (at least not to me), and they would just be "bad" on every level for me.

In fact, even when there is sincerity, it's not a truly deterministic system. I think that the first Troll movie is technically objectively worse than Troll 2, but I find Troll 1 to be pretty boring, in addition to being incompetent, while Troll 2 is silly and an utter blast to watch.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by some-guy on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @07:32PM (#19213444)
I have the same taste in movies as you (awful B-grade or cinematic masterpiece, nothing in between), but I have the exact opposite conclusion regarding movies as an art form being "dead".

Just like with music, the technical barriers to entry to make a film or a song are much lower than before, and the market is very saturated as a result. The issue is no longer "is there enough content that I would enjoy" but rather "how the heck to do I make a choice what to watch?".

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by Phenomenit on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @12:21PM (#19209710)
Agreed, every movie I've been to for the last 2-3 years have been boring not terrible, just utterly boring and a waste of time and money.

Compared to other mainstream art forms, movies have a higher barrier of entry and that translates in to smaller influx of new and interesting concepts.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by Stunting on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @01:49PM (#19210752)
Then you are going to the wrong movies friend.

Which is to say, you are victim to assuming the mega complex Movie Theater, powered by the mega complex of Studios pumping out advertisements are the only option available to you.

If cinema is a desirable experience to you, seek out film colleges, independent theaters, movie rental spots, and YouTube/Vimeo/reddit. You’ll find a bunch of crap, for sure, but it will be new and interesting crap. You’ll explore your own mind trying to define why you don’t like it. Eventually you’ll see something truly moving and that will be amazing!

Or, If you justly say “I don’t have time or energy for something I’m not that passionate about,” continue to go to the AMCs. Just recognize, much like McDonald’s they (and the studios) have massive overhead and massive interest in not losing money. No one takes the person complaining that McD’s isn’t gourmet very seriously.

(The most moving zombie movie I ever saw was 15mins on YouTube and had 3 zombies in it..)

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by scottlocklin on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @03:25PM (#19211628)
Movies used to be better without having to go for the art school/criterion outlets. Cf the entire pre-Star Wars 1970s oeuvre which mostly managed to be relatively highbrow and entertaining in a way that they haven't since then.
Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by JetSpiegel on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @05:52PM (#19212915)
That's because the duds are filtered through time and forgetfulness. Rose tinted glasses of memory.

Nobody remembers the boring movies from their childhood.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by scottlocklin on Thursday February 21, 2019 @11:52AM (#19218189)
Erm I didn't watch those movies when I was a kid, and I certainly wouldn't be able to appreciate them if I had. I watched almost all of them as an adult within the last 4-6 years.
Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by JetSpiegel on Saturday February 23, 2019 @06:48AM (#19232865)
Me too, but that's not the point. We are not watching a random sample of old films, we only watch the old hits.

We are watching a random sample of present films.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by scottlocklin on Monday February 25, 2019 @09:34PM (#19251530)
I don't think I am watching the old hits! I watch a lot of forgotten trash, and I like that stuff too. It's still way better than capeshit or whatever it being hawked these days. Video nasties by Hammer, weird pirate movies written by Peter Benchley, Charlie Bronson movies, Oliver Reed movies, Doug McClure movies...

A lot of the older film noir stuff I watch is definitely filtered by time: but you can pick any random garbage from between 65 and 75 and it's likely to be decent.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by Stunting on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @10:02PM (#19214161)
This! Not to mention that at the time, people HATED Ewoks.