So I'd say it's definitely possible to fool even a person let alone an algorithm, as you said it's questionable though if there aren't any easier ways for criminals to use stolen card numbers.
Definitely agree it's possible to make good fake cards, but it makes it difficult enough that fraudsters will usually migrate to a different platform. Since banks are probably the most attractive business to fraudsters, we'd suspect banks would have to make life much more difficult for fraudsters than the average business in order to chase them away.
However, it seems if this practice (scanning card) becomes more widely adopted and becomes a standard process of detecting fraud, it'd become a relatively easy target for fraudsters to crack, right? I don't know if DL or card making technology will outpace fraudsters' will to make fake cards?
Further more, if I'm a fraudster and know some websites that adopt this policy, there is a big incentive for me to get a credit card embossing kit to start making cards, right? After all, I'd think it is far easier to make a copy of a card than making the magnetic strip thing? And given your tech is a strong signal of 'not fraud', if it is relatively easy to beat this system, wouldn't it attract a huge number of fraudsters?
We used to say that our job wasn't to stop fraud, it was to move the attacks to Paypal instead. I don't have strong product opinions on this either way (personally I find all the card scanning apps to be incredibly annoying, but I think I'm a minority), but I do think it'll be a long time before I'd be worried about self-embossed cards being a meaningful attack vector.
Thinking about this from a individual fraudster perspective. Acquiring a stolen cc is not an easy transaction, there is risk, and cost involved. So I think each fraudster would be trying to maximize the value of each stolen cc they have on hand. When you have a system that doesn't tell the fraudster what is causing the stolen cc to be rejected, the fraudster has nothing but trial&error to improve their chance, maybe instead of public wifi they have to use a private one, maybe instead of a gmail account they have to use a edu account. But in this case, if they know that a embossing kit will significantly improve their chance, wouldn't they spend the money and get that technology?
The bottom line is this technology has to make it more expensive for the fraudster to throw their hands up and say "well i better go try a different place". but I'm not sure if the barrier is high enough here. Furthermore, if you have an 'invisible' barrier, then it is all about trial and error, if you have a 'visible' barrier, I think it is just going to garner more attention and more people trying to solve it?