Ah, I see what you mean. I think it is clear, however, from what they did do, that they were heading in the wrong direction and had some serious misconceptions that would have prevented them being lucky in that sense. There is the question of whether they even did a correct calculation of critical masses prior to hearing about the Hiroshima bomb (while being held at Farm Hall), and they apparently did not understand the relevance of prompt neutrons. I believe one of the Alsos team members said that the German scientists were lucky they did not kill themselves with their primitive experiments.