Re:Compounding Knowledge
by T-hawk on Wednesday February 06, 2019 @03:33PM
(#19099578)
> but around 20 I'm going to be suspicious.
There's a multiple-endpoints effect here. If there are 2^20 participants all doing that, one of them is going to flip 20 heads in a row. You only notice the one who did after the fact. Some participant has to be the most outlying result and that's the only one you notice.
(Not that that's necessarily the case for Buffett, but that's a general fallacy to be aware of.)
There's a multiple-endpoints effect here. If there are 2^20 participants all doing that, one of them is going to flip 20 heads in a row. You only notice the one who did after the fact. Some participant has to be the most outlying result and that's the only one you notice.
(Not that that's necessarily the case for Buffett, but that's a general fallacy to be aware of.)