Apple's warning is a bad omen for Wall Street bulls

Re:Apple's warning is a bad omen for Wall Street bulls by ajross on Thursday January 03, 2019 @10:06AM (#18815588)

And I repeat: Android market share could drop to zero and the existing size of the market for $500+ phones would not be enough to justify AAPL's trillion dollar market cap. Like most tech stocks, Apple's cap had priced in the expectation of growth. But that's what this warning is about: no growth. So the cap is going to shrink to a level that the market feels justifies the sustained revenue (currently $680B, but that's no doubt going to bounce around a lot in the coming weeks).

It's not about who's phones are better.

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Re:Apple's warning is a bad omen for Wall Street bulls by Retric on Thursday January 03, 2019 @01:12PM (#18817457)

Apples P/E ratio is 12 to 20 that’s not a growth stock. In the start of 2008 when it hit 40 that was growth territory. But it’s fallen as low as 9 in 2013.

And that’s ignoring the 180 billion or so in assets on a 684.07B market cap. The only way those numbers are rational is if people are expecting sales to tank.

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Re:Apple's warning is a bad omen for Wall Street bulls by ajross on Thursday January 03, 2019 @04:17PM (#18819363)

It's not a growth stock now. It was before. Are you missing the part where it's dropped from $1T to $750M over the past three months, and now to $680 given the earnings warning today (which basically validates the earlier motion)? It's literally the subject of discussion...

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Re:Apple's warning is a bad omen for Wall Street bulls by Retric on Thursday January 03, 2019 @05:08PM (#18819812)

At 1T it’s still not really a growth stock.

20 P/E is the edge of growth. Consider a utility with steady 5% returns + inflation is often an appealing option for people looking for steady returns. This always depends on what options are available.

Further the entire market is down which changes expectations. The Dow going from 26,800 to 23,300 would mean a drop from 1T down to ~869 billion.

Yep, people think Apple is slightly worse off now. But, Apple has been stuck as a relaticly high volatility value stock for a while. The expectation is lots of profit, but little real growth.

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Re:Apple's warning is a bad omen for Wall Street bulls by ajross on Thursday January 03, 2019 @08:47PM (#18821304)

That... what? That's just wrong. Look upthread for your example that started this whole thing. BMW's P/E is less than 6! Toyota's is around 7. Apple is absolutely priced like a growth stock. No, it's not as high as better growth bets are, but it's absolutely not priced by earnings. It just isn't.

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Re:Apple's warning is a bad omen for Wall Street bulls by Retric on Thursday January 03, 2019 @09:08PM (#18821399)

Both those car companies are facing serious long term issues. Yes, the numbers today look ok, but expectations are not looking good.

  US MBW market share, is just one indicator.
  2014	2.06%
  2015	1.98%
  2016	1.79%
  2017	1.77%

They are also shrinking in Europe, though this is offset by emerging markets. But, relative to the industry they need a turn around.

TOYOTA: Car decline overshadows light-truck gain https://www.autonews.com/article/20181002/RETAIL01/181009878...

With a slightly down market:

  Dominion Electric is 16.08
  Proctor and gamble is 23.66

Proctor and gamble has some growth but it’s stock is up 50% in the last decade. It’s doubled in the last 20 years which is some growth but not much.

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