That’s way off the mark. The federal tax credit is only 7,500$ and it’s not removed only dropping ~4K.

As to affordability, it’s the used car market that attracts discount buyers making the sticker price largely irrelevant. Which is why even a new Honda Civic runs 20,000+$.

What's off the mark? That is the price listed on Tesla's website. It's obfuscated by the fact that they incorporate "gas savings" into the displayed price, but if you click the info button they give you the "real" price.

The credit is only changing by 3,750 on January 1, it’s not hitting zero.

  $7,500	On or before December 31, 2018
  $3,750	January 1 to June 30, 2019
  $1,875	July 1 to December 31, 2019

That’s not to say the low battery range Tesla 3 will be out by June 30th, but the difference is not dramatic.

You can argue how ‘real’ that gas savings is, but gas is not free and it’s going to be more relevant when someone is buying a used electric vehicle. The gas savings is just as meaningful in years 5-15 but you’re not paying MSRP.

So it will be $44k+ in July (vs the stated 46k). I stand corrected...

If they can get the low battery range Tesla to mid 20s then we'll be talking. But if it is in the mid to upper 30s then the numbers don't really add up and the vehicle remains a luxury.

Again, if someone wants a car under 20k they are likely looking at a used car. We don’t have a lot of used electric cars yet, but that’s just a matter of time.

PS: The fuel savings is massive which will push up resale prices and directly save their original owner money. Saving 20+k over 15+ years and several owners is not the same as a lower sticker price, but it’s far from meaningless.

Note that the tax credit phases out over the course of a year, so for Tesla it'll be $3750 in H1 '19 and $1875 in H2.

During 2019, cheaper versions with a smaller battery are expected, maybe even hitting the promised 35k for the entry level model. But probably still limited to the black color, others cost extra.

Sure, but that was also true of 2017.

Tesla was quite explicit, that deliveries of the Model 3 started with the high end models first and work downwards from there. They actually started with a middle level model - long range battery but only rear wheel drive. That the production ramp-up was slower than hoped for is known. Mid 2018 they added the AWD model and the performance AWD model, later the mid-range rear wheel drive. Next step, that is clearly communicated by Tesla, will be the standard range battery. For that, they will build a new smaller and cheaper battery pack - the mid range has the same pack as the long range, just with fewer cells in it.

I'm sorry, but you are simply rewriting history. As late as July 2017 (when the Model 3 launched), Tesla was claiming that the base model would be available that year (https://electrek.co/2017/07/29/tesla-model-3-production-spec...). They had been saying the same thing (that a $35,000 would exist and be available in 2017 for the previous 3 years).

The top selling automobile in America (Ford F150), has a base price of 43k. The Second best selling automobile ( Chevy Silverado ) is at 42k. In total the Average sale price of an automobile in America is 34k

Tesla is still above that, but not by much. I think people discount how much all those trucks and SUV's they see rolling around cost.

The F-150 has a base price of $28k. The Chevy Silverado also has a base price of $28k. Those are MSRPs, so you can get them cheaper with bargaining, though of course the average person ends up paying more because they're adding on options.

I have no idea where you're getting those $43k figures from??

The average person ends up paying a lot more. Here is where I got my data from

Ford F150 - https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/ford/f-150-pricing/

Chevy Silverado - https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/chevrolet/silverado-1500-...

Thats the actual average paid.

You said "base price", not "average price".

~42K for a base domestic pickup might be MSRP.

The actual transaction price is much, much less.

That is the actual transaction cost. The MSRP is lower for base model's but most cars sold are not base models.

You specifically stated base model price in your post. Why are you arguing?

Consumers buying a pick up are not going to be buying a Tesla. They are completely different categories of vehicle used for very different purposes.