The PRB covers the role of propellant gases in recoil, and measures effectiveness of muzzle brakes.[0] He talks about 20%-50% reduction in recoil with muzzle brakes. And that implies that gas expansion from the muzzle accounts for at least 50% of recoil.
Even so, some additional measurements might be useful. It'd be interesting to know, at sub-msec sampling rates, the velocity of gas leaving the muzzle. And if there's still appreciable unexplained recoil: 1) the length of the barrel; 2) the displacement of the barrel from the stock; and 3) the diameter of the barrel, measured at maybe 4-5 points from the chamber to the muzzle.
Because steel is, after all, notoriously elastic. And the barrel may be attached to the stock in a way that smears out recoil. Also, the rifle may have other recoil-management features that reduce recoil, and smear it out. It's bolt-action, so there's no blowback, and I don't see a muzzle brake, but ???
0) http://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/07/01/muzzle-brakes-recoi...