No, per-capita rates, not absolute population numbers, are what directly affect the odds that anything will happen to you personally. That's why we have per-capita rates.

The only place where per-capita comparisons really break down are for very tiny countries (micronations). When the population is only a few thousand, you can't get good statistical data from that as the sample size is too small, plus micronations just don't compare to real nations for many reasons. But that's not the issue here because we're comparing nations that all have populations well into the tens of millions or more.