Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb...
by leereeves on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @02:20PM
(#18709657)
Yes, they were pre-nomination articles. At that time Silver was acting in the way an earlier comment in this thread said he does not act:
> saying things with false-certainty and then basking in self-proclaimed genius when luck happened to run in his favor
Something seems to have gone wrong at 538 after their stellar performance in 2012. In 2016 even their Congressional predictions were only 90% accurate. Or perhaps 2016 was simply different from past elections.
> saying things with false-certainty and then basking in self-proclaimed genius when luck happened to run in his favor
Something seems to have gone wrong at 538 after their stellar performance in 2012. In 2016 even their Congressional predictions were only 90% accurate. Or perhaps 2016 was simply different from past elections.