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A comment on Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war. Parent comment

Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by leereeves on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @01:48PM (#18709322)
That's not the whole picture. Before he learned to be more careful, Silver was calling Trump a troll, doomed to fail, who wasn't even trying to win.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-winning...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-the-wor...

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Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by scott_s on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @01:51PM (#18709353)
Yup, and after that, he issued a complete mea culpa and made it a point to look at the actual data.
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Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by leereeves on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @02:06PM (#18709510)
Yes, and he admitted to misleading with fake math:

> But it’s not how it worked for those skeptical forecasts about Trump’s chance of becoming the Republican nominee. Despite the lack of a model, we put his chances in percentage terms on a number of occasions.

So it would be more accurate to say that he was careful during the second half of the election, after making significant mistakes (both mathematical and ethical) during the first half.

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Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by VintageCool on Wednesday December 19, 2018 @09:39PM (#18722066)
By "first half" you mean before Iowa, and by "second half" you mean after Iowa.
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