This is a smart observation. There has been some theoretical work on the intersection of game theory and uncertainty quantification [1]. One part of it is a mathematical take on what you described - you have a system which is not pricing risk correctly, due over-confidence in model predictions. If so, there should be money to be made in placing bets on that system.

[1] https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/pdf/10.2514/6.2017-1092