Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb...
by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @09:55AM
(#18706758)
> I can't think of a similar way to evaluate Silver's election forecasting mode
You bucket every prediction, look at the outcome, and then confirm whether the favoured outcomes in the 8th decile actually occurred 70% to 80% of the time.
You bucket every prediction, look at the outcome, and then confirm whether the favoured outcomes in the 8th decile actually occurred 70% to 80% of the time.