Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb...
by coldtea on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @03:35AM
(#18705261)
>This is just not helpful. He has said “probability of rolling a six” twice.
For different purposes.
One is "probability of rolling a six on a standard die" -- e.g. a systemic property, where we know it's 1 in 6 but we have inherent randomness in how we roll the dice (alea in aleatory comes from the latin for dice btw, as in the famous J.Ceasar quote "alea iacta est" -- well, famous from Asterix at least).
The other is the probability of rolling a six based on what we don't know but in theory could (do we have a standard 6-sided dice? Are we asked to predict an event featuring some bizarro D&D dice we haven't seen? Is it really cubic? Have the edges been treated with a file? How about its balance?)
For different purposes.
One is "probability of rolling a six on a standard die" -- e.g. a systemic property, where we know it's 1 in 6 but we have inherent randomness in how we roll the dice (alea in aleatory comes from the latin for dice btw, as in the famous J.Ceasar quote "alea iacta est" -- well, famous from Asterix at least).
The other is the probability of rolling a six based on what we don't know but in theory could (do we have a standard 6-sided dice? Are we asked to predict an event featuring some bizarro D&D dice we haven't seen? Is it really cubic? Have the edges been treated with a file? How about its balance?)