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Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by nkurz on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @01:38AM (#18704928)
I think you may not be appreciating the subtlety of the repetition of the "probability of rolling a six". His claim is that aleatory probability starts with the assumption that you have a standard six-sided die with all sides weighted equally, but that epistemic uncertainty requires accounting for the uncertainty that you have a fair die, or even that it has six sides. So in both cases you are indeed trying to calculate the "probability of rolling a six", but the answers, and the process for creating them, are not the same. So while it might not have been the best phrasing for clarity, he's making a meaningful distinction.
Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by mturmon on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @02:31AM (#18705084)
Yes, agreed. I noticed that potential interpretation, mostly because I already knew the distinction. Now suppose you didn’t already know.
Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by andrelaszlo on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @04:44AM (#18705490)
I didn't know and I had to read that part twice.
Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by fhars on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @02:26AM (#18705071)
Yes, the description is technically correct (the best kind of correct...), but as an explanation it is garbage because it hides the point to be explained behind subtlety.