Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb...
by nkurz on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @01:38AM
(#18704928)
I think you may not be appreciating the subtlety of the repetition of the "probability of rolling a six". His claim is that aleatory probability starts with the assumption that you have a standard six-sided die with all sides weighted equally, but that epistemic uncertainty requires accounting for the uncertainty that you have a fair die, or even that it has six sides. So in both cases you are indeed trying to calculate the "probability of rolling a six", but the answers, and the process for creating them, are not the same. So while it might not have been the best phrasing for clarity, he's making a meaningful distinction.
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Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb...
by mturmon on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @02:31AM
(#18705084)
Yes, agreed. I noticed that potential interpretation, mostly because I already knew the distinction. Now suppose you didn’t already know.
Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb...
by andrelaszlo on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @04:44AM
(#18705490)
I didn't know and I had to read that part twice.