The entire argument against string theory, is, in many ways, founded on the fact that as a group of hypotheses, none of them predict anything that would rule them in or out that's within a practically reachable detection limit.
>no one really knows what they're doing. Even Feynman said that no one understands QM
Quantum field theory makes possible the single most accurate predictions in all of science. Time and time again people whip out the Feynman (mis)quote to try to argue "oh we don't really know what's happening", but just cannot see why they think that way. Science is about finding observing reality and formulating descriptions with predictive power, and qft is objectively the best description any person has figured out so far.
>Modern QFT is like being given a laptop with an Excel spreadsheet that does some clever things, without having any idea what a processor is, what memory is, how a hard drive works, or why the case is that funny shape.
Again, preposterous. We know how qft works (we've come up with it, after all), and we know how to use it to make predictions and confirm them experimentally. If you mean know in a deeper, fuzzy sense, they maybe, maybe not.
>the fundamental problem - reconciling GR and QFT - can't be solved without a completely new mental model
>It's become a bit of a cargo-culty pursuit.
If you come up with a better idea than the current understanding, publish your findings and you will instantly become the most respected, popular, and influential physicist alive.
I will concede though that sadly funding is allocated more to "safer" avenues of research than novel ones. That's certainly a problem.
Modern QFT is like being given a laptop with an Excel spreadsheet that does some clever things, without having any idea what a processor is, what memory is, how a hard drive works, or why the case is that funny shape.
The kinder way to put this is to say there's a lot of educated guessing going on. But the fundamental problem - reconciling GR and QFT - can't be solved without a completely new mental model. And academic research isn't funded in ways that reward the generation of creative new models.
It's become a bit of a cargo-culty pursuit. You're rewarded if you know the words to the songs that everyone else is singing, but if you try to invent a new genre you'll probably be told it's career suicide and Don't Go There.