How exactly can one calculate such risk? At best somebody put an Exel file with a model that was wrong but that looked impressive in a presentation. But I doubt that even that was done. Somebody just put vague words that everybody was doing that.

There are things that one should not do no matter how tempting it looks. Rusdian roulette can be very attractive as 5 out 6 persons who tried claimed that it was a harmless.