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Re:Things Economists Agree On by john_horton on Saturday October 30, 2010 @10:29AM (#1850912)
A few points:

(1) Many if not most economists are empirical. Recent John Bates Clark medals---a good reflection of what academic economists think is the best work being done right now---have gone to economists doing empirical work. Recent examples include what works for development (evaluated with large randomized controlled trials), what are the causes of growing income inequality, how should we structure auctions etc. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark_Medal . To say that most economists have no contact or interest in empiricism is incorrect.

(2) The point about simple models is not that economists fully believe them---it's that they force everyone to be explicit about assumptions. They also try to identify what are the key features of admittedly very complex phenomena. This is what models do in most scientific endeavor. That the models often perform poorly is a sign of an immature science---not fraud or dishonesty. You'd get eternal fame and become fantastically rich if you came up with a financial model with great predictive powers---do economists not create such models because they are stupid and corrupt? That seems unlikely.

(3) The transistor example completely misses the key distinction that every presentation of the simple supply and demand model always makes - i.e., there is a difference between the short term and long term. If demand doubled for transistors tomorrow, the price wouldn't rise?

(4) You confuse absolute and comparative advantage.

(5) "In the 1950s the US had a great economy. Except for some points of information, biomedical, and materials technology, it's not clear that our standard of living is as high now."

This is where I stopped reading - this is so obviously wrong http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=GDP/capita+real+US that it's hard to take seriously any conclusions on the relative merits of different industrial policies the follow from this "fact."

Re:Things Economists Agree On by Benjo on Saturday October 30, 2010 @03:58PM (#1851664)
In response to point 5. Is it clear that per capita GDP is a good measure of standard of living? Adjusted median income has not risen much with GDP. Do you have an argument for why standard of living should be evaluated as a mean instead of a median?

http://www.stanford.edu/class/polisci120a/immigration/Median...

Re:Things Economists Agree On by john_horton on Saturday October 30, 2010 @04:48PM (#1851776)
There are lots of different moments & quantiles of the income distribution that are interesting and useful to look at, but its not like the mean is terribly misleading here. In the plot you provide, median income in real dollars has increased from 25K in 1950 to 40K in 1990---a 70% increase in real income.
Re:Things Economists Agree On by SHOwnsYou on Sunday October 31, 2010 @03:13AM (#1852719)
> Is it clear that per capita GDP is a good measure of standard of living?

Yes. This is something else virtually every economist will agree on. ACists, neoclassical, keynesian, Chicago, Austrian, I'm sure there are other major schools I'm forgetting, but this is a very accepted measure of standard of living in the field of economics.

Re:Things Economists Agree On by aloneinkyoto on Sunday October 31, 2010 @05:35PM (#1854406)
> Yes. This is something else virtually every economist will agree on.

A statement which only help to make his point about economists being ignorant crocks. GDP is heavily doubted as a good measure of standard of living in all other social sciences.

Examples of what the GDP measure fails to take into account: ecological sustainability, wealth distribution, non-market transactions, underground economy, non-monetary economy, subsistence economy, quality improvements and inclusion of new products, what is being produced, externalities, sustainability, etc, etc...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product#Limitati...

Re:Things Economists Agree On by SHOwnsYou on Sunday October 31, 2010 @07:44PM (#1854749)
I don't understand your argument here.

You won't find an economist (or any other person person) in the world that thinks GDP exhaustively covers every aspect of an economy and how it provides a standard of living.

What you will find is that they all agree GDP is the best available measure to determine a standard of living that is derived from some level of economic production.

If GDP is a terrible metric for determining standard of living, I'd like to know why it is still the most often used metric (by economists and non-economists alike) and a coherent argument for some alternative standard.

Any satisfaction based metric means that the majority of the developed world is doing something wrong -- numerous happiness studies show indigenous peoples often have a higher "happiness index" than people in the developed world.

Environmental based metrics have their own problems because environmental benefits and harms are not internalized by nations.

Income distribution based metrics aren't acceptable because the harms of great income distribution disparity are not easily mapped and are rarely agreed upon.

The only thing that might make sense is a metric based on life expectancy and education (Human development index from your Wikipedia link), but even that is problematic. Research created free-riding, regardless of patents.

The second a US company makes a drug that eliminates cancer, any lab that gets their hand on the drug can reverse engineer it with ease. The however many millions of dollars that went into building it (and become a function of its cost) are undercut by countries/people that do not respect the intellectual property rights of such a patent.

The outlay of spending becomes highly concentrated while the company doesn't see the returns that it expects. The drug copier gets the benefits of the hundreds of millions in R&D expenditure while only spending a few extra days of a scientists time.

Re:Things Economists Agree On by aloneinkyoto on Monday November 01, 2010 @04:43AM (#1855788)
The reason why GDP is still used is because we have a lot of historical GDP data available and it is a fairly simple measure to understand and collect data on. Nor do we have a good enough alternative measure yet. We do have several candidates, but just as you state they all have weaknesses that needs to be understood.

The problem with economic sciences is that the GDP measure is used without critique, without fully understanding its trade-offs or by simply ignoring it deficiencies. That I believe is very careless when you are in the end dealing with the lives of real people.

Re:Things Economists Agree On by SHOwnsYou on Monday November 01, 2010 @10:52AM (#1856645)
I have a (procedural) problem with your critiquing something not inherently bad with no alternative. You haven't presented any new arguments against the GDP nor have you attempted to argue that any possible alternative is more viable than the GDP. I invite you to respond to any of the arguments I made against GDP alternatives.

> The problem with economic sciences...

Honestly, this is hard for me to read.

Lectures on the inadequacies of the GDP are Macro 101 stuff. Throughout college in my different econ classes the shortfalls of the GDP were frequently discussed by several different teachers.

This economic sciences conspiracy to prevent indictments of the GDP you're trying to present as fact is completely fabricated and gives a bad name to economists that do discuss the shortcomings of the GDP (read: every economist ever).

Re:Things Economists Agree On by thomasz on Saturday October 30, 2010 @03:53PM (#1851650)
GDP / capita is a pretty meaningless metric if you consider that wealth is a lot more concentrated these days.
Re:Things Economists Agree On by john_horton on Saturday October 30, 2010 @04:54PM (#1851786)
Income is more concentrated today compared to the post-war period, but I don't think that makes the mean meaningless---it depends upon how much weight you put on a dollar held by different parts of the distribution. That being said, I think you'd be hard pressed to show that any part of the income distribution is worse-off in real terms than they were in 1950.

Incidentally, we only know about these changes in the income distribution because empirically oriented economists have been collecting and analyzing this data for many years.

Re:Things Economists Agree On by thomasz on Sunday October 31, 2010 @07:52AM (#1853109)
I agree with you on the assumption that most likely all parts of the income distribution are better of today compared to the 50's -- on absolute terms. But _relative_ wealth becomes an important metric as soon as basic needs -- food, shelter etc. -- are satisfied.
Re:Things Economists Agree On by john_horton on Sunday October 31, 2010 @09:13PM (#1854968)
Agreed - relative inequality definitely matters.
Re:Things Economists Agree On by dennisgorelik on Sunday October 31, 2010 @03:11AM (#1852717)
Could you suggest better metric than GDP per capita?
Re:Things Economists Agree On by aloneinkyoto on Sunday October 31, 2010 @05:41PM (#1854418)
Human development index (HDI)

Genuine progress indicator (GPI)

Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW)

Gross national happiness (GNH)

The Gini coefficient

Just to name a few. None of which is perfect, but at least better than the GDP when it comes to actually saying something about the quality and state of an economy.

Re:Things Economists Agree On by anamax on Monday November 01, 2010 @12:38AM (#1855385)
> The Gini coefficient

Why do I care how much someone else has?

Re:Things Economists Agree On by aloneinkyoto on Monday November 01, 2010 @04:33AM (#1855777)
Rich man in a ghetto or rich man among friends. Pick one.
Re:Things Economists Agree On by anamax on Monday November 01, 2010 @10:34AM (#1856580)
> Rich man in a ghetto or rich man among friends. Pick one.

Rich people don't live in ghettos - that's why ghettos have a very "good" Gini coefficient. (Ghettos would be better off if they did have rich residents.)

I didn't hate rich folks when I lived in a ghetto. Was I doing something wrong?