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Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by chmaynard on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @07:36AM (#18493365)
> Critics say it is bad service that is driving people away.

One datapoint: I live in Rhode Island. Recently I attended a concert in Brooklyn. The obvious way to travel there was Amtrak to Penn Station and MTA (train or bus) to the final destination. However, I was warned that MTA service is unreliable. I decided to drive. Next time I probably won't go at all.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by bunderbunder on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @09:44AM (#18494100)
So, I haven't been to New York in a while, but I'm guessing that you were poorly informed.

Usually when public transit networks start showing strain, it's during rush hours, when they're handling massive spikes in ridership. To give an example from Chicago: If you're trying to get on the train downtown at 6:00pm, you'll get on the next train, and probably get to sit in a seat. If you try to do it at 5:00pm, you stand a good chance of waiting 30 minutes for a train that you can even physically get on to. When you do, your ride will probably also take 50% longer than the 6pm ride would have. And maybe even 100% longer than a ride at 7pm would have.

You naturally get all the complaints from the rush hour riders. And yeah, if your concert were starting at 6 in the evening so that you'd have to brave rush hour traffic, then that would be a problem. But so would driving.

If, like most concerts, it was starting a bit later, you'd very likely have experienced smooth service.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by tetromino_ on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @04:33PM (#18497973)
The actual issue with New York subways is:

* planned work every weekend and most late weeknights which reroutes half the trains and is described in terms guaranteed to confuse visitors. A complete map of the changed routes would help massively; instead, you get a long list of textual descriptions such as "Brooklyn-bound F trains are running express on the E track between Court Sq and W 4th St and local on the D track to Stillwell Av" which scares and confuses tourists who barely understand downtown Manhattan geography, much less how it relates to the rest of the city.

* occasional unreliability at any time of the day, typically either due to signal failures in century-old analog wiring, or because of paramedics or cops shutting down an entire station to take care of a rowdy or injured passenger.

Locals have learned to adapt. They know what the cryptic planned work descriptions mean and in which situations next station alerts are lying. They have learned to understand the static-y conductor announcements on a loud train. They know that on some lines, if you must to be at your destination on time, you ought to leave 30 minutes early just in case this ride is the 1/20 when something happens.

Visitors don't know such things, and I can empathize with their apprehension.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by weberc2 on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @10:21AM (#18494395)
> If you're trying to get on the train downtown at 6:00pm, you'll get on the next train, and probably get to sit in a seat. If you try to do it at 5:00pm, you stand a good chance of waiting 30 minutes for a train that you can even physically get on to.

What line are you describing? I take the L every day from downtown around 5 and I can reliably get on the first train and it will arrive in < 10 minutes (and there's a good chance I'll have a seat). If a train takes more than 10 minutes, it will almost certainly be packed full, but it will also almost certainly be followed by another nearly-empty train in ~1-2 minutes.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by bunderbunder on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @10:48AM (#18494667)
The example I had in mind was blue line northbound from Clark & Lake.

Which is admittedly the worst scenario that I could think of, and I should have said that. It gets better quickly from there. I used to get on 2 stops further south, and, yeah, at 5 I usually had no problems and a decent chance of getting a seat, too.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by _asummers on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @04:54PM (#18498173)
Blue Line north at 5-5:30PM is a nightmare from Clark/Lake. I sometimes have to wait for 4-5 trains before I can get on.
Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by monksy on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @03:44PM (#18497536)
This all depends on the time that you get on the train. Also he was talking about C&L. It is quite possible that you could have 3+ trains go by and still not get in the train between 5-6:30pm. Often times, you'll have your back to the door. During those time's it's better to go south to come back up north. (But you didn't get that advice from me) It's rare to get a completely empty train at C&L during rush hour and there are frequent gaps that are 6+min.

Now UIC Halsted, you're very likely to get a seat, not always though.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by weberc2 on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @04:24PM (#18497899)
> This all depends on the time that you get on the train.

We were both talking about 5PM.

> Also he was talking about C&L.

I had no way of knowing this when I wrote my post. :)

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by throwaway427 on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @11:13AM (#18494928)
> If, like most concerts, it was starting a bit later, you'd very likely have experienced smooth service.

Unless it was on the weekend when there are a multitude of service interruptions and station closures.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by dionidium on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @09:22AM (#18493947)
That's really silly and a sign of how overblown this story has become (in some contexts). You would have been fine. When a system like the NYC Subway gets 20% worse for everyday commuters, that's a really big deal and something those commuters are going to talk about a lot. But a NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago is still a massive, complex, incredible, useful machine, no matter how much New Yorkers complain about it.

And, so, should they complain? Yeah! There's nothing wrong with expecting more from the MTA. But these stories are generating comments like yours here and that's absurd.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by ricardoreis on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @09:30AM (#18494005)
A NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago

By what metric?

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by BorgHunter on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @09:38AM (#18494059)
On-time performance has dropped dramatically in the past ten years. In the following article, look for the graph titled, "On-time performance by line, 2007 to 2017".

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/28/nyregion/subw...

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by ricardoreis on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @09:42AM (#18494088)
Thanks very much for the link.

But eyeballing that chart suggests an average deterioration significantly worse than 20 percent.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by dionidium on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @09:40AM (#18494076)
Delays, primarily. Overcrowding, secondarily.
Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by ricardoreis on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @09:43AM (#18494094)
Numbers, please. (That's what "metric" means, btw).
Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by throwaway427 on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @11:18AM (#18494967)
Numbers may not tell the whole story, obviously: https://outline.com/KLsxf3
Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by dionidium on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @11:33AM (#18495122)
Yes, and it shouldn't take more than a couple minutes of thinking about the issues to realize that most of the commentary on the topic makes very little sense. Experiential measurements aren't so easily calculated, I'd say.

Just a few examples:

- Would you rather have a train that arrives one minute late every single day, for a 0% on-time record, or a train that arrives on time 3 out of every 5 times and then is 20 minutes late the other two? How many articles on the subway distinguish between the two types of lateness? It matters a lot.

- You might read that Atlanta's MARTA, for example, has a better on-time performance record than the NYC Subway. Well, that's great, but it's also got rush-hour scheduled headways of 10 minutes, scheduled off-peak headways of 20 minutes or more, and no service entirely at many stations after 9PM (no trains run at all after 2AM). So something that's "late" in New York City still comes before the scheduled train in Atlanta (when the trains there come at all). [0]

- The NYC Subway also has 10 times as many stations as MARTA and 17 times as many miles of track. They say the best camera is the one you have on you. Something like that applies here, too. What's the on-time record for a train that doesn't exist?

MARTA is a random comparison, but it's not uncommon for writers of screeds about the subway to offer up comparisons to other systems devoid of any of the kind of context I provide above.

So, you know: 1) comparisons are difficult; 2) especially if you want to capture what it's actually like to use transit in the cities you're comparing. All of which is to support my original contention that this story has been decontextualized by surly commuters and the idea that a tourist couldn't rely on the subway to get to a concert is nonsense.

[0] https://www.itsmarta.com/railline-schedules.aspx

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by majewsky on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @11:47AM (#18495240)
I know you're describing pathological examples to make your point, but:

> Would you rather have a train that arrives one minute late every single day, for a 0% on-time record

At this point, the operator should just update the schedule to reflect actual travel speed.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by vkou on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @04:27PM (#18497930)
What about a train that idles for an extra 0-15 minutes, in order to make sure that it arrives on time, because there is 15 minutes of headroom baked into the schedule?

The parent poster notes that trains in Atlanta do just that.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by throwaway427 on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @12:42PM (#18495756)
> All of which is to support my original contention that this story has been decontextualized by surly commuters and the idea that a tourist couldn't rely on the subway to get to a concert is nonsense.

The L train?

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by ricardoreis on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @12:20PM (#18495529)
Agreed - I don't need numbers to tell me how unpleasant the daily experience of riding the subway in NYC has become.

I was merely responding to someone else who brought up a numbers-based argument only to find out that they... apparently don't have any.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by dionidium on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @03:46PM (#18497552)
I don't have access to any numbers you don't. I've tried to describe the ways in which I think the numbers can be used to tell a misleading and unnecessarily apocalyptic story. If I've failed to make that case on the merits, then I'll have to live with that, but just for the record, the 20% figure I gave was plainly illustrative, not a quote of actual figures; your references to it demonstrate the power of the anchoring effect, but I'll happily clarify, again, that they were -- I think manifestly, but the communication failure is mine, if not -- randomly chosen to make a point, not culled from a stash of secret MTA data.

The mere fact that people from Rhode Island now believe that they won't be able to successfully use the subway to attend a concert is I think pretty strong evidence that the story has gotten away from us a bit. Nobody here, least of all me, wishes to downplay your commute.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by ricardoreis on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @07:05PM (#18499067)
That's fine - non-quantitative (a.k.a. "gut") reasoning is a valid and useful cognitive tool (in certain contexts), in fact.

If I was to give a "gut" estimate for the overall deterioration of the subway service in recent years, though -- I'd peg it at closer to 30 or 40 percent than merely 20.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by dionidium on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @09:36PM (#18499783)
A NYC Subway that’s 40% worse than it was 10 years ago is still by far the best transit system in North America.

Now, look, that doesn’t mean it’s good that it’s declined so much, but context and perspective remain useful.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by ricardoreis on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @04:37AM (#18501335)
A NYC Subway that’s 40% worse than it was 10 years ago is still by far the best transit system in North America.

But compared to just about any major city in Europe... seriously, it's almost a joke.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by ricardoreis on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @09:26AM (#18493979)
Apparently the commenter isn't much of a city person, and may have overreacted a bit.

But they shouldn't have been downvoted for expressing that sentiment.

Re:NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', ... by umanwizard on Tuesday November 20, 2018 @04:45PM (#18498068)
Why not just go to Penn Station planning on taking the train to the final destination, then Uber on the off chance there ends of being a problem with the train?

The MTA has problems, but it still usually gets you where you need to go.