Re:Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet
by justinpombrio on Friday November 16, 2018 @01:43AM
(#18466984)
Yes: for that reason and others the whole approach doesn't make much sense from a Bayesian perspective. I was trying to point that out by running with it.
It only makes sense to toss H0 out if P(XXXYYY|H1) >> 5% (such that the evidence for H1 relative to H0 increases after the observation).
You are implicitly assuming that’s the case because “it makes sense”. But as the parent post mentioned, the likelihood is not defined and in particular if the noise in the observation process is large enough, P(XXXYYY|H1) may be very close to 0.05 as well.