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Re:Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet by mabbo on Thursday November 15, 2018 @11:56PM (#18466535)
> then XXXYYY is just dumb luck

That's the idea. The null hypothesis is that this is dumb luck. Here's a piece of evidence that, if this is dumb luck, is not very likely. Ergo, the odds this is just dumb luck is low and there may be a real effect here.

As the OP said, it's not meant to be used in a scientific paper, it's to let you see if you might be on the right track.

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