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Re:Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet by cperciva on Thursday November 15, 2018 @04:39PM (#18463644)
Right. And those are also more powerful (and don't need any knowledge of the distribution of measurement errors).

I mentioned the "three old and three new" test because it's simple, not because it's powerful.

Re:Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet by blt on Thursday November 15, 2018 @06:10PM (#18464359)
more powerful in the statistical sense? I though non-parametric tests were usually less powerful than those where a certain distribution is assumed.
Re:Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet by srean on Friday November 16, 2018 @12:28AM (#18466646)
You would be surprised what number of samples does to the tests. Take t-test -- the most powerful test to check if means of 2 equivariant Gaussians differ. If you compare the asymptotic efficiency of Mann-Whiney (a distribution free test) relative to t-test is around 0.96. Of course in practice you will not have infinite samples. It then comes down when do these asymptotics kick in. Unfortunately that depends on the distribution.
Re:Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet by adamc on Thursday November 15, 2018 @06:21PM (#18464444)
That depends on whether the assumed error distribution is accurate. Obviously, if the distribution is known, you will do better by incorporating it. But assuming Gaussian errors when the data doesn't match can lead to bad analyses.