Re:UFOs spotted off Irish coast under investigation
by yesenadam on Tuesday November 13, 2018 @03:59AM
(#18439640)
"in a universe like ours, almost all first contact events will consist of relativistically expanding spheres of von Neumann machines impacting planets populated solely by nonsapient life."
You talk as if that's a certain fact. (Even estimating a probability) I'm no expert in the area, but why? Is that justified? What's that based on? (Not to mention the last sentence 'reminding me' of another odd 'fact'.)
Re:UFOs spotted off Irish coast under investigation
by hderms on Tuesday November 13, 2018 @10:40AM
(#18441747)
I think it's like a big-o type argument about rates of growth of approximately spherical areas in 3d space
Re:UFOs spotted off Irish coast under investigation
by a1369209993 on Tuesday November 13, 2018 @03:09PM
(#18444430)
That combined with the aforementioned thousands-to-one odds that a life form that hasn't yet developed into a relativistically expanding sphere also hasn't developed sapience. (I'm not using the mathematical definition of "almost all" of course.)
There would (probably) also be a significant number of cases where two spheres run into each other, but it's debatable whether most of those count as first contact events (light speed lag versus "it's all the same civilization"). The main point was the enormous unlikelyhood of a nearby alien civilization being within a thousand years or so (out of multiple billion) of our developmental level.
The Fermi paradox is more a question of "Why hasn't anything eaten every star in the sky yet?".
Re:UFOs spotted off Irish coast under investigation
by yesenadam on Tuesday November 13, 2018 @05:54PM
(#18445680)
I feel like I was given many more strange assumptions, without any of the things I was asking about being addressed. Your "of course", which I didn't understand, in a few different ways, makes me think I'm talking to experts. I understood almost nothing you wrote. But well, like I said, I don't buy all these assumptions. Reading this is like reading those unhelpful wikipedia pages that only make sense if you already understand what it's saying. And your way of talking as if it's all obviously true, (e.g. "let me remind you") raises my suspicions that it's not.
I think this is something that doesn't get enough attention; in a universe like our's, almost all first contact events will consist of relativisticly expanding spheres of von Neumann machines impacting planets populated solely by nonsapient life. (Say three billion years before humans evolved versus a generous million years of human 'civilization' gives a three thousand to one ratio.) We should not expect to see anything remotely near our point in the developmental timeline.
(If "relativisticly expanding spheres of von Neumann machines" sounds unlikely, let me remind you that every star in the sky is a massive pile of valuable raw materials that has unfortunately caught fire and needs to be extinguished as soon as possible.)