Credit ratings are forward-looking though. The US's financial position is the worst it has ever been - public debt to GDP is on wartime footing in a long period of peace between major powers.

And from my admittedly highly unreliable sources, a number of states aren't in great financial health and there is a pension crisis afoot.

The fact that the US is going to hand out the nominal value of its debt is not comforting in light of this.

> ... there is a ton of money to be made on the open markets by securing your position with capital

That isn't a fair challenge and you know it, there are a lot of ways to lose everything being clever with derivatives even if the macroeconomic assessment is right. Profiting off something isn't the only way to be right about an opinion.

> This is a legitimate criticism but separate from your other claims.

No it isn't. If the US isn't honoring the capitalist system inside their markets, it is legitimately risky to assume that they will treat foreigners with more respect.

There is an argument that they will, but it isn't a sure thing by any stretch. If something does change, by the time everyone admits that it will be far too late for investors.

The US is chronically unable to balance its budget. The first thing to give could easily be foreign-owed debt, because foreigners don't vote.