Re:My Grandfather Thought He Solved a Cosmic Mystery
by bhk on Friday November 02, 2018 @11:37PM
(#18368544)
I agree. There are a number of ways to model the process of creating the mixture that will avoid the water vs. wine bias that is the essence of the "paradox" as stated.
The main lesson is that the Principal of Indifference is "not even wrong". (It's nonsense.)
> wine/water = (1-x)/x
It's symmetrical but not "naturally" uniform. If we consider both quantities as independent and uniformly distributed over [0..1[, then 1:1 ratio becomes much more likely to occur than 1:1000000. I find that approach "the most natural". The probability P(water/wine < 2) is 7/8 in that case.