Re:The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
by CryptoPunk on Wednesday October 17, 2018 @12:43PM
(#18240855)
>>To me it looks like trading drives markets to respond
Respond to what? The markets are about events that have not happened. The payout is directly proportional to the predictive power of the market purchase.
>>Finally if people are good at prediction, using algorithms for example, then those algorithms provide the required prediction and we should use those to target resources and retain wealth in the market rather than giving out 40% of the wealth (UK)
How do we incentivize people to generate these predictive methods, let alone release them for public use, without a compensatory scheme like a prediction market?
Moreover, assume they are predictive, do they target funds to where society needs them.
Finally if people are good at prediction, using algorithms for example, then those algorithms provide the required prediction and we should use those to target resources and retain wealth in the market rather than giving out 40% of the wealth (UK) just to get some predictive power.
I think the value added by the market is vastly over-stated in the present model.