Re:Oil droplets guided by pilot waves do not give rise to do...
by pmikesell on Friday October 12, 2018 @02:18AM
(#18199643)
No, that's not what this is about.
Probability means this: "in X tries, how likely is it for Y to happen". The ambiguity here is this: what is the set of X? Is the set of all families with two children at least one boy, or the set of all families with 2 children of which you have determined one is a boy.
Those are different sets. It doesn't matter how you discovered the information. The apparent paradox is all grammar and set description.
Think of it this way - you want to test this out and actually run this experiment? Great! What's the experiment? Are you starting with all families with 2 children, or all families which 2 children at least one boy.
>> How I know the information about on data point one affected the likelihood of an unrelated one
Probability means this: "in X tries, how likely is it for Y to happen". The ambiguity here is this: what is the set of X? Is the set of all families with two children at least one boy, or the set of all families with 2 children of which you have determined one is a boy.
Those are different sets. It doesn't matter how you discovered the information. The apparent paradox is all grammar and set description.
Think of it this way - you want to test this out and actually run this experiment? Great! What's the experiment? Are you starting with all families with 2 children, or all families which 2 children at least one boy.
>> How I know the information about on data point one affected the likelihood of an unrelated one
No, it doesn't.