I mean I could provide statistical data and show trends etc, but that's a lot of effort. I am presuming that people here will have kept up on major breaches to realize that point. That might be a really bad assumption but I know there are some really smart infosec people on hacker news.

Yes, social events do not always follow the same pattern (see Trump election), but the odds in this case are very much on the side of Facebook's breach being the same as others before it.