The centenary of the 20th century’s worst catastrophe, the Spanish flu

Re:The centenary of the 20th century’s worst catastrophe, th... by chriselles on Monday October 01, 2018 @01:16AM (#18110197)

I wonder if a discussion around Spanish Flu should also include the 1956-58 Asian Flu as well as the 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu?

Would the much more open travel of today, compared to the far more closed international travel of yesterday have had a significant impact on virality and mortality of those two more recent pandemics?

I’ve sat in on a meeting in the post Tamiflu/bird flu scare environment that provided a macro view of the challenges facing a small country like New Zealand.

My thoughts are that a financial hedge against a pandemic might include:

Going “long” tele-presence such as Zoom, Skype, etc as well as streaming entertainment.

Going “short” passenger airlines, lifestyle retail, and shopping mall REITs.

As far as global/macro risks go, pandemic is top of mind for me.

I perceive pandemic as a lower risk and likelihood than another global financial shock.

But I view them both as ultimately inevitable.

It’s just a question of severity for both.

But Imthinkmthe difference is that another GFC would not precipitate a pandemic.

But a pandemic could precipitate a GFC.

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Re:The centenary of the 20th century’s worst catastrophe, th... by cm2187 on Monday October 01, 2018 @04:05AM (#18110791)

One problem will be the media crying wolf every year, anytime there is a minor disease spreading. Bird flu, swine flu, ebola, mad cow disease, etc. All of which have a tiny death toll, dwarfed by even the common flu. But every time we are told this is the end of the world, everyone should be scared. As a result I think people progressively ignore these warnings.

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Re:The centenary of the 20th century’s worst catastrophe, th... by ekianjo on Monday October 01, 2018 @02:08AM (#18110362)

> But a pandemic could precipitate a GFC.

I dont see why. Some industries would suffer, but others would prosper. It would not be a whole-encompassing GFC like when the banks derail.

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Re:The centenary of the 20th century’s worst catastrophe, th... by PeterisP on Monday October 01, 2018 @03:54AM (#18110741)

A pandemic with casualty rates comparable to the Spanish Flu would mean a rapid worldwide GDP drop comparable to a GFC simply because even if the GDP-per-capita would stay the same, there would be less people, so a drop in both production and demand. It would also mean an immediate jump in household default rates as a noticeable portion of families lose their main earners. Both of these factors are likely to cause banks to derail as well.

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