Re:New York inmate's golf drawings lead to exoneration in mu...
by rayiner on Thursday September 20, 2018 @12:07PM
(#18033488)
Yes, it has. Folks hundreds of years ago could not articulate the rules of evidence in Bayesian terms, but intuitively understood that it is probabalistic. The question is, what are the odds that all these facts are true and the accused is not the killed. If that is below the threshold for reasonable doubt (1-10%) then a conviction is in order. Circumstantial evidence like “direct” evidence narrows that probability. Knowing the killer stayed at the same hotel as the victim on the night of the murder is circumstantial evidence, but dramatically narrows the probability that the accused is innocent compared to the prior odds ratio. Any given piece of circumstantial evidence may not be enough, but together it can narrow the odds sufficiently to achieve a conviction. (He was in the same hotel, had an insurance policy on the victim’s life, and had recently purchased a gun, which cannot be found.)
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