That is one of the interesting things about all this - but there are also much easier ways to do false flag operations.

The evidence of this and previous assassination attempts is either there´s some idiot at the top of Soviet intelligence who just has to be creative, or far more likely the whole point is to send a very public message to the rather large Russian diaspora, that no matter how far they run, Mother Russia is looking over their shoulder.

For that purpose, a quiet inconspicuous assassination would be totally pointless.

To do what you describe they simply send guys from a well-known ‘republic’, which is all green light on any crime you have in your russian crime book. All russians understand this language, and there is no reason to use wmds for that. If it was a message, it must be very secret language of selected few, not for a diaspora. I really doubt that there is a thing like ‘looking over their shoulder’ since what’s the reason for that? Why not just look over all shoulders?

The fact that no one understands (or asks himself) how these irrational political actions take place at all shows that they are smarter than you may think. Or that they are just complete idiots. Choose your enemy and good luck with that. Or don’t and stay aware.

But let’s not be fooled by politics, I already feel from these hn discussions how russians are more and more viewed as monkeys with grenades and even if it wasn’t a someones goal, it was totally reached. As if it was a shame being russian, politics excluded. I’m deeply offended by this ignorance, vot.

Wow, so what you are basically saying is that the Russians intended this assassination to be discovered and demonstrated to be a poisoning attack?

Given how these stories over the poisoning have played out it certainly looks that way. The "cover" story is comically poor, and they have plenty of people intelligent enough to do better.

So short of Putin calling a press conference saying "Yup, we did it" it couldn't have been telegraphed much clearer.

I agree. This is by far the most likely rationale. They've basically taken a leaf out of the Mossad playbook.

I'm a bit surprised they don't have Shaggy playing in the background during the press conferences.

> they have plenty of people intelligent enough to do better

Now, that's a very charitable assumption. I am not sure we have any evidence for that :-)

> Given how these stories over the poisoning have played out it certainly looks that way.

But that would mean that they were provoking the Western countries to give them hell. I am the first to admit that I do not hold their intellectual powers in any high esteem, but even so, even for them, this sounds outrageously insolent and stupid.

No, I would gently submit that they are provoking Western media to give them lots, and lots, of free publicity.

Western countries are not going to give Russia any kind of hell that Russia´s rulers will really care about. Russia is a major gas and oil supplier to the entire of Western Europe.

>But that would mean that they were provoking the Western countries to give them hell

Gee, you think?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru...

Putin clearly has no problem with the idea of provoking Western countries.

Crimea is really very much of a corner case.

First, it's not in a Western country.

Second, the annexation happened soon after the Ukranian revolution, which made the legitimacy of the Ukranian government (and the very status of the Ukranian state) at that point uncertain.

Third, there were various historical and political considerations muddying the issue (Crimea was given to the Ukraine by the head of the USSR only about a generation ago, and there was a general feeling of a historical injustice done by this act; there was a large Russian population in Crimea; and the revolutionary Ukraine was markedly nationalistic and anti-Russian, which probably pushed a large portion of the Russian-speaking Crimean population into the embrace of Russia).

Smuggling a military-grade poison in Britain is quite a different matter.

The invasion of Crimea is a much bigger deal that the Skripal poisoning. Russia clearly isn't afraid of "provoking" Western countries.

Why is it a bigger deal?

It could have been a bigger deal if Ukraine were a member of NATO, and the alliance had an obligation to respond. But as the things stand, why is it a big deal — for the US, the UK, Germany, France, etc.?

(Skripals poisoning, in contrast, would imply a special operation on the soil of a sovereign Western country, using the tabooed chemical weapons. A concrete, old-school, physical action, as opposed to the more abstract propaganda wars or some shady online activities.)

>Skripals poisoning, in contrast, would imply a special operation on the soil of a sovereign Western country, using the tabooed chemical weapons.

That's nothing Russia hadn't already done years before.

And proudly signaled to the rest of the world that it was them that did it?

What cases are you thinking about?

Yes, the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko.

Even the Wikipedia article says that the correct diagnosis — the poisoning by polonium-210 — was made to a large extent due to a happy coincidence: there happened to be a scientist in the facility where Litvinenko was treated who happened to have worked with polonium. Were it not for that coincidence, it is very possible the correct diagnosis would not have been reached, and the very investigation that followed would not gone very far.

So I am not sure how Litvinenko poisoning is an illustration of an assassination attempt advertised as such to the rest of the world. On the contrary, it looks like a murder attempt that was intended to have never been solved.

>On the contrary, it looks like a murder attempt that was intended to have never been solved

Seriously? Using Polonium meant that it took weeks for Litvinenko to die, giving him plenty of time to make it clear exactly who was responsible, and even give interviews to the press. If they wanted to keep it quiet, they did a pretty terrible job.

The invasion is a much bigger deal on a global scale, but not against a country firmly established as part of the West, while the Skripal poisoning is chemical weapon attack on the territory of a NATO member; as such, it is a far greater provocation of Western countries.

The invasion of Crimea triggered a far greater response from the West than the Skripal poisoning. Russia has been poisoning people on British soil for a while now; it's nothing new.

>which is like droping a nuclear bomb to kill a single person

check that. Litvinenko. Basically minimal possible weapon of nuclear kind. Leaving no doubts who did it.

That is the point. An unmistakable publicly visible signature so nobody would have any doubts who did it, and all that without need to publicly take responsibility. Like with Nemtsov - killed right in the view from Putin's office. No need to claim responsibility while everybody clearly understands who did it.

>There is a information war happening to desecrate Russian Federation in the eyes of the world and nothing more.

The "information war" goes non-stop in the world, and Russia is far from being the only target or participant. The only thing we hear from Russia is that non-stop whining.

Why not use chemical weapons? Kim's brother was assassinated by VX for example. So it's not really out of character for autocrats.

Chemical weapons are easy to use in quantities that ensure limited effect.

Much easier and quiet way is to find a criminal guy who would kill Skripal for money and make it look like a robbery.

Depends on the goal. I don't think you can assume it was just to get rid of the person.

But that's the thing.

There's no clear reason for Russians to so publicly go after this guy. They gain absolutely nothing from it. Whatever the "message" this was supposed to send, it's unclear.

> Whatever the "message" this was supposed to send, it's unclear

Large numbers of former KGB and FSB agents live outside Russia. These well-publicised killings send a clear message to them about the consequences of spilling—or threatening to spill—Putin’s beans.

What interesting life we live now. You can just watch the news and feel like you’re in the middle of some cool plotted tv series. Deep history, inriguing secrets, sharp moves, old hatred. It’s also along the modern trend of being sarcastic and a little cynical.

Except that it is our real life and it clearly shown to not be like any tv show before.

Yeah, that's the TV line.

This guy lived quietly in the UK and had no "Putin's beans" to spill. He did blow cover of several hundred Russian agents, but he did time for that in Russia and then he was exchanged. It is possible it was a long-delayed payback from the GRU, but, again, there is no reason for it to be made that publicly. He could've choked on a pound coin and everyone who needed to know would've gotten the message. But the way it stands, the only discernible message here is "don't do any more spy exchanges with Russia".

>Sergei V. Skripal, the former Russian spy poisoned in Britain with a powerful nerve agent, appears to have been working in recent years with intelligence officers in Spain, a country locked in a pitched battle with Russian organized crime groups, some with ties to the Russian government.

>Rather than merely living an isolated life in retirement, Mr. Skripal, a former Russian military intelligence officer, continued to provide briefings to spies in the Czech Republic and Estonia, according to European officials. Now, it appears he was also active in Spain.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/06/world/europe/skripal-pois...

How interesting. This definitely puts things in a different perspective.

> that's the TV line

As well as the well-substantiated conclusion of several international investigations. Same reasoning for Litvinenko’s polonium tea and North Korea’s nerve agent assassination.

That reasoning in this context doesn't make any sense. That's the problem.

Ok then. Who else had the motivation to ostentatiously kill him using a weapon only available to state actors?

Another state actor? Though in the light of [1] it'd seem far less probable.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17987031

Indeed. Russia is the only plausible candidate.

> why did not we do that then?

I think this logic is backwards. The question of why the Russians did not kill Skripal back then has no place in establishing whether they attempted to kill him now. The question should not be why did they not kill him then, but rather why did they try to do it now (if indeed it was them who did it).

As for the information war (aka propaganda), I think that's pretty obvious (only Russia is not an innocent victim here, but also a warring party).

From my first-hard experience of incompetence and incoordination of different Russian intelligence agencies and branches (mostly internal, though) - yes, "we" are that stupid. Aggressive, resourceful, but stupid indeed.

Calling some person a "spy" without any investigation is stupid as well. As we all know Skripal in not a spy for a long time (former - maybe), but he was called "Russian Spy" from the beginning of all this story. Bullshit all over the place.

> why did not we do that then?

Because that would have been stupid. Why kill a spy when you can exchange him for your spies and then kill him. Which is what they (almost) did. Quite sensible really in a "fuck you world" kind of way.

Makes sense in some way. But why "Novichok" did not work then, if it is so scary super-duper chemical weapon? Both of the victims are cured.

Basically western mass media was talking that only Russia has a formula for Novichok form the beginning, how did they came up to know that is is Novichok without having the formula? If anyone can have that formula to compare or to detect that poison, is there any evidence that it was originally produced by Russia?

> why "Novichok" did not work

It did, it just didn't kill Sergei Skripal which was clearly the intent.

> Basically western mass media was talking that only Russia has a formula for Novichok

I haven't done a exhaustive analysis of all western media but the bit of western media I read didn't say that. What they said initially was that it was a nerve agent. Then, after analysis in the UK, they said it was Novichok but couldn't confirm the source. Then after international analysis, particularly at a lab in Switzerland but also others, they did confirm the source.

No-one knowledgeable is saying that only Russia has the formula because it's not true. Novichok isn't especially new, it was developed decades ago by the Soviet Union to get around NATO NBC gear. That's pretty well documented.

The fact that Novichok was used isn't what makes the labs believe it was Russian origin. It's the specific composition that makes them sure. Even then, that wouldn't necessarily mean it was Russian administered. It's all the other evidence that points there.

They had hundreds quiet of ways to kill Sergey.

What is "specific composition", how did they know that it was specific to Russia?

All this is too easy to fake and blame anyone, make that a reason to put sanctions against the country and convert it to evil in eyes of all, at least even from this forum I notice that.

> They had hundreds quiet of ways to kill Sergey

Sure they did but that clearly wasn't the goal or, at least, not the only goal. Anyone who thinks that this was somehow an incompetent operation doesn't know what they're talking about. The GRU are just doing what Mossad has been doing for years. And they appear to be doing a pretty good job of it.

> how did they know that it was specific to Russia?

Not specific to Russia, specific to a lab in Russia. As they can't publish the actual analysis, I'm going to make an educated guess that they look at trace elements in the poison. Every lab will have a signature. I have no idea whether it was from the poison itself, the solvent or something else. What was clear though is that the UK lab couldn't trace it but the Swiss could.

> convert it to evil in eyes of all

Nah. This is small potatoes compared to the invasion of Crimea.

>desecrate Russian Federation in the eyes of the world and nothing more

Russia Today does that by itself just fine.

One may or may not like what another person is talking. If you don't like what others a speaking of that's not the reason to make them shut up. But RT is forced to close is UK and US. "Democracy" in action.

I don't take pills, I live here and all the Skripal story is looking like a bullshit to me, that's my point of view so you can see not only what your mass media is feeding you. Russia is gaining power and other countries don't want that, so come up with ideas to blame Russia in all sins.

> Russia is gaining power

China is a rising power. Russia is a moderately-sized (between New York and Florida in GDP [1]) regional power and petrostate with shaky finances.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_between_U.S._stat...

First, I did not say we are on top, but we do gain. Second, power is not only econimics, but politics and power to stand against external threats and protect our people.

I wonder what threats Russia faces from the west?

I wonder as well.

But for one reason or other they tend to regard eastward NATO expansion as a threat.

:shrug:

It's probably the good old distraction technique. As long as there's an external enemy, the internal enemies of the people (corrupt government) is spared some pressure. Also military needs to be fed (both litarally at soldier level and metaphorically the corrupt officials, and arms suppliers), so unless you have some "enemy", it's hard to justify all the large training and expenditures.

I'm sure awarding contracts is also good way to siphon out some public money for Kremlin's cronies.

Why not "gain power" in a constructive way that benefits humanity, instead of always taking the side of tyrants and dictators?

If you are talking about Bashar al-Assad - he is officially elected president by the people in his country. I would not call him dictator. Only western people sitting on the other side of the planet know better who is the best leader for the people in other countries, lol. Sorry I can't post anymore cause I had so many votes agains my opinion.