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Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by Animats on Friday September 07, 2018 @02:30PM (#17936560)
Actual paper from that author.[1] From 2016.

Her real point is that the electronics industry is doing great, while some other parts of of US manufacturing are not. Fig. 2 is useful. Textiles, apparel, furniture, and paper products are the big losers. The apparel industry was totally crushed by imports from low-wage areas. That took out the US textile industry, since exporting textiles to be made into apparel and re-imported was pointless.

US motor vehicle output is up, not down. That hasn't been crushed by imports.

Primary metals (which is mostly steel and aluminum) are up.

More breakdown of the computers and electronics sector would help. We'd probably see semiconductors through the roof and consumer electronics down. That data is available.

This is useful. Trade is an industry-specific problem. The American apparel industry is mostly gone, but we have cheap clothing. The metals industry complains but isn't in real trouble. Motor vehicles are doing OK. A breakdown of consumer goods by category would help. That would show where to apply tariffs.

Paper products are down because newspapers are obsolete, and they used vast amounts of paper, and because offices use far less paper. Not import-related.

[1] https://upjohn.org/sites/default/files/pdf/state-of-american...

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by philipkglass on Friday September 07, 2018 @03:00PM (#17936793)
Another thing to consider, when pondering counterfactuals to free trade: offshoring destinations are also automating. China is now the largest market for industrial robots:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/26/china-is-the-largest-market-...

Maybe when the local factory shut down in years past it transferred 500 jobs straight to China. That doesn't necessarily mean that it kept employing 500 people for the same output in the years since. Re-shoring the same volume of production may mean significantly fewer jobs today, in e.g. textiles:

"U.S. Textile Plants Return, With Floors Largely Empty of People", 2013

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/20/business/us-textile-facto...

... Take Parkdale: The mill here produces 2.5 million pounds of yarn a week with about 140 workers. In 1980, that production level would have required more than 2,000 people. ...

Or in the case of fields that still are very little automated, like garment sewing, it would require pretty much the same number of workers now as 20 years ago. As you say, it's very product-specific.

If we broaden the category a bit from "manufacturing jobs" to "industrial jobs" (including things like coal miners and workers at coal fired power plants), you also see strong effects from process-and-input changes. It takes far fewer people to produce a terawatt hour of electricity from a modern combined-cycle natural gas generating plant than from a modern (worse, built-in-1970) coal plant. It also takes fewer workers for a TWh from solar PV or wind power. The rapid growth of jobs in renewable energy is a temporary excursion, mostly an artifact of current rapid expansion. At steady-state it will take fewer people to supply electricity from a renewable-heavy electricity system than a coal-heavy system. That's one reason that I am bullish on the long term price-competitiveness of renewable electricity but skeptical that "green jobs" are a panacea for declining industrial employment in other sectors.