Re:Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; S...
by AnthonyMouse on Friday September 07, 2018 @11:09AM
(#17934834)
> Stop and think for a second that Tesla is one earthquake away from no longer being a company.
This is highly unlikely in the short term and in the long term they'll be building more plants. It's also something anyone can insure against by placing a bet that an earthquake will destroy their factory in the next five years. You'll presumably get 50:1 odds or better (a good chunk of which is the vig), which means the insurance would cost less than 2% of the sum you want insured.
> they have about a year of cash runway left( optimistically)
Unless they turn a profit (or come closer to it), which it's plausible they're about to do.
> You can't just collect insurance money and build a new factory like you can with a house, this is a many year project.
No, but you can buy insurance in the amount of the value of the output (or of your shares) rather than the cost of building a new facility, if you were really that worried about it.
> And the most worrying thing for them is that their next car will compete head on with Mercedes, BMW, Audi, and GM. That will be the first time they've had to compete head on with a competitor.
The entire EV market is production capacity constrained and will be for a couple more years at least. They can't lose sales to Mercedes or BMW EVs because they'll all already be selling 100% of the EVs they can manufacture, all of which are coming at the expense of petrol cars.
This is highly unlikely in the short term and in the long term they'll be building more plants. It's also something anyone can insure against by placing a bet that an earthquake will destroy their factory in the next five years. You'll presumably get 50:1 odds or better (a good chunk of which is the vig), which means the insurance would cost less than 2% of the sum you want insured.
> they have about a year of cash runway left( optimistically)
Unless they turn a profit (or come closer to it), which it's plausible they're about to do.
> You can't just collect insurance money and build a new factory like you can with a house, this is a many year project.
No, but you can buy insurance in the amount of the value of the output (or of your shares) rather than the cost of building a new facility, if you were really that worried about it.
> And the most worrying thing for them is that their next car will compete head on with Mercedes, BMW, Audi, and GM. That will be the first time they've had to compete head on with a competitor.
The entire EV market is production capacity constrained and will be for a couple more years at least. They can't lose sales to Mercedes or BMW EVs because they'll all already be selling 100% of the EVs they can manufacture, all of which are coming at the expense of petrol cars.